Roma – Cagliari odds
Roma went into the match as heavy favourites against Cagliari.
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Roma – Cagliari: closing odds analysis
- Roma were favourites: the closing odds implied a 70% chance of a home win, 11% for Cagliari and 19% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Roma 1.44 at bwin, the draw 5.25 at Oddset, Cagliari 8.75 at Oddset.
- VBET had the highest closing payout on the match result: 96.6%.
- Odds movement: the best price on Cagliari shortened from 10.00 at the opening to 8.75 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 56% chance of three or more goals and 45% that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Roma or Cagliari?
Roma, by a distance: the closing odds put 58.2 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Roma – Cagliari?
It depended on the outcome: bwin was best on Roma, Oddset on the draw and Oddset on Cagliari. Across all three outcomes VBET paid out the most (96.6%) and Bet25 the least (90.5%).
| BOOKMAKER | ROMA | DRAW | CAGLIARI | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VBET | 1.41 | 4.80 | 8.50 | 96.6% |
| Betmaster | 1.36 | 5.20 | 8.40 | 95.5% |
| Stake | 1.40 | 4.70 | 8.20 | 95.3% |
| Betinia | 1.36 | 5.00 | 8.50 | 95.0% |
| CampoBet | 1.36 | 5.00 | 8.50 | 95.0% |
| Casinomoto | 1.36 | 5.00 | 8.50 | 95.0% |
| Betoro | 1.36 | 5.00 | 8.50 | 95.0% |
| Casino House | 1.36 | 5.00 | 8.50 | 95.0% |
| bwin | 1.44 best price | 4.50 | 7.25 | 94.8% |
| Oddset | 1.33 | 5.25 best price | 8.75 best price | 94.6% |
| bet365 | 1.38 | 4.75 | 8.00 | 94.3% |
| ComeOn | 1.32 | 5.15 | 8.52 | 93.5% |
| GetLucky | 1.31 | 5.10 | 8.44 | 92.8% |
| Casinostuen | 1.31 | 5.10 | 8.44 | 92.8% |
| 888sport | 1.33 | 4.60 | 8.50 | 92.0% |
| Mr Green | 1.33 | 4.60 | 8.50 | 92.0% |
| Bet25 | 1.30 | 5.00 | 7.40 | 90.5% |
| BEST PRICE | 1.44 | 5.25 | 8.75 | 100.1% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 1.30–1.44 · 10.8% | 4.50–5.25 · 16.7% | 7.25–8.75 · 20.7% | 90.5–96.6% |
How did the Roma – Cagliari odds move before kick-off?
The best price on Cagliari shortened from 10.00 when odds opened on 19 Oct to 8.75 at kick-off, a 12.5% drop.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | ROMA | DRAW | CAGLIARI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 19 Oct (open) | 1.36 | 5.20 | 10.00 |
| Fri 23 Oct | 1.37 | 5.20 | 10.00 |
| Tue 27 Oct (kick-off) | 1.44 | 5.25 | 8.75 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Three or more goals was priced as more likely than not. Both teams to score was priced at 44.9%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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