Liverpool – Brighton odds
Liverpool went into the match as clear favourites against Brighton.
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Liverpool – Brighton: closing odds analysis
- Liverpool were favourites: the closing odds implied a 47% chance of a home win, 28% for Brighton and 25% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Liverpool 2.12 at Betmaster, the draw 4.05 at Betano, Brighton 3.70 at VBET.
- Unibet had the highest closing payout on the match result: 97.5%.
- Odds movement: the best price on Brighton drifted from 3.35 at the opening to 3.70 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 60% chance of three or more goals and 62% that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Liverpool or Brighton?
Liverpool, clearly: the closing odds put 18.5 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Liverpool – Brighton?
It depended on the outcome: Betmaster was best on Liverpool, Betano on the draw and VBET on Brighton. Across all three outcomes Unibet paid out the most (97.5%) and Bet25 the least (90.6%).
| BOOKMAKER | LIVERPOOL | DRAW | BRIGHTON | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet | 1.98 | 4.00 | 3.70 best price | 97.5% |
| Betano | 2.10 | 4.05 best price | 3.30 | 97.5% |
| ComeOn | 2.09 | 3.86 | 3.32 | 96.3% |
| Stake | 1.95 | 3.95 | 3.65 | 96.2% |
| VBET | 1.94 | 3.92 | 3.70 best price | 96.1% |
| Expekt | 1.98 | 3.85 | 3.55 | 95.6% |
| LeoVegas | 1.98 | 3.85 | 3.55 | 95.6% |
| Betmaster | 2.12 best price | 3.60 | 3.35 | 95.4% |
| GetLucky | 2.07 | 3.83 | 3.29 | 95.4% |
| Casinostuen | 2.07 | 3.83 | 3.29 | 95.4% |
| Betinia | 2.05 | 3.80 | 3.33 | 95.1% |
| CampoBet | 2.05 | 3.80 | 3.33 | 95.1% |
| Casinomoto | 2.05 | 3.80 | 3.33 | 95.1% |
| Betoro | 2.05 | 3.80 | 3.33 | 95.1% |
| Casino House | 2.05 | 3.80 | 3.33 | 95.1% |
| Oddset | 2.07 | 3.80 | 3.25 | 94.9% |
| SpreadEx | 2.05 | 3.75 | 3.30 | 94.6% |
| bwin | 1.95 | 3.80 | 3.50 | 94.2% |
| 888sport | 2.05 | 3.70 | 3.10 | 92.5% |
| Mr Green | 2.05 | 3.70 | 3.10 | 92.5% |
| Bet25 | 2.00 | 3.55 | 3.10 | 90.6% |
| BEST PRICE | 2.12 | 4.05 | 3.70 | 101.1% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 1.94–2.12 · 9.3% | 3.55–4.05 · 14.1% | 3.10–3.70 · 19.4% | 90.6–97.5% |
How did the Liverpool – Brighton odds move before kick-off?
The best price on Brighton drifted from 3.35 when odds opened on 13 Oct to 3.70 at kick-off, a 10.4% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | LIVERPOOL | DRAW | BRIGHTON |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tue 13 Oct (open) | 2.02 | 3.86 | 3.35 |
| Mon 19 Oct | 2.15 | 3.90 | 3.35 |
| Sun 25 Oct (kick-off) | 2.12 | 4.05 | 3.70 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Three or more goals was priced as more likely than not. Both teams to score was priced at 62.4%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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