Inter – Fiorentina odds
Inter went into the match as heavy favourites against Fiorentina.
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Inter – Fiorentina: closing odds analysis
- Inter were favourites: the closing odds implied a 69% chance of a home win, 13% for Fiorentina and 18% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Inter 1.40 at bwin, the draw 5.60 at Stake, Fiorentina 8.50 at Betinia.
- Stake had the highest closing payout on the match result: 96.2%.
- Odds movement: the best price on Fiorentina drifted from 7.30 at the opening to 8.50 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 59% chance that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Inter or Fiorentina?
Inter, by a distance: the closing odds put 56.7 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Inter – Fiorentina?
It depended on the outcome: bwin was best on Inter, Stake on the draw and Betinia on Fiorentina. Across all three outcomes Stake paid out the most (96.2%) and Bet25 the least (90.6%).
| BOOKMAKER | INTER | DRAW | FIORENTINA | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stake | 1.40 best price | 5.60 best price | 6.80 | 96.2% |
| VBET | 1.36 | 5.50 | 7.40 | 95.0% |
| bwin | 1.40 best price | 5.25 | 6.75 | 95.0% |
| Betinia | 1.36 | 5.00 | 8.50 best price | 95.0% |
| CampoBet | 1.36 | 5.00 | 8.50 best price | 95.0% |
| Casinomoto | 1.36 | 5.00 | 8.50 best price | 95.0% |
| Betoro | 1.36 | 5.00 | 8.50 best price | 95.0% |
| Casino House | 1.36 | 5.00 | 8.50 best price | 95.0% |
| Oddset | 1.35 | 5.50 | 7.50 | 94.7% |
| ComeOn | 1.36 | 5.45 | 7.03 | 94.2% |
| Betmaster | 1.38 | 5.20 | 6.80 | 94.0% |
| GetLucky | 1.34 | 5.40 | 6.97 | 93.0% |
| Casinostuen | 1.34 | 5.40 | 6.97 | 93.0% |
| 888sport | 1.33 | 5.00 | 7.50 | 92.1% |
| Mr Green | 1.33 | 5.00 | 7.50 | 92.1% |
| Bet25 | 1.32 | 5.40 | 6.20 | 90.6% |
| BEST PRICE | 1.40 | 5.60 | 8.50 | 99.0% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 1.32–1.40 · 6.1% | 5.00–5.60 · 12.0% | 6.20–8.50 · 37.1% | 90.6–96.2% |
How did the Inter – Fiorentina odds move before kick-off?
The best price on Fiorentina drifted from 7.30 when odds opened on 12 Oct to 8.50 at kick-off, a 16.4% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | INTER | DRAW | FIORENTINA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 12 Oct (open) | 1.39 | 5.40 | 7.30 |
| Mon 19 Oct | 1.40 | 6.85 | 7.80 |
| Sun 25 Oct (kick-off) | 1.40 | 5.60 | 8.50 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Both teams to score was priced at 58.8%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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