Hoffenheim – Bayer Leverkusen odds
Bayer Leverkusen went into the match as clear favourites against Hoffenheim.
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Hoffenheim – Bayer Leverkusen: closing odds analysis
- Bayer Leverkusen were favourites: the closing odds implied a 46% chance of an away win, 31% for Hoffenheim and 24% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Hoffenheim 3.25 at VBET, the draw 4.20 at Stake, Bayer Leverkusen 2.28 at Casino House.
- Betano had the highest closing payout on the match result: 97.4%.
- Odds movement: the best price on Bayer Leverkusen drifted from 2.13 at the opening to 2.28 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 71% chance that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Hoffenheim or Bayer Leverkusen?
Bayer Leverkusen, clearly: the closing odds put 14.8 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Hoffenheim – Bayer Leverkusen?
It depended on the outcome: VBET was best on Hoffenheim, Stake on the draw and Casino House on Bayer Leverkusen. Across all three outcomes Betano paid out the most (97.4%) and Bet25 the least (88.7%).
| BOOKMAKER | HOFFENHEIM | DRAW | BAYER LEVERKUSEN | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betano | 3.20 | 4.20 best price | 2.10 | 97.4% |
| Stake | 3.20 | 4.20 best price | 2.04 | 96.1% |
| ComeOn | 3.12 | 4.06 | 2.08 | 95.5% |
| Casino House | 2.90 | 3.75 | 2.28 best price | 95.2% |
| Betinia | 3.20 | 4.00 | 2.05 | 95.2% |
| CampoBet | 3.20 | 4.00 | 2.05 | 95.2% |
| Casinomoto | 3.20 | 4.00 | 2.05 | 95.2% |
| Betoro | 3.20 | 4.00 | 2.05 | 95.2% |
| VBET | 3.25 best price | 3.99 | 2.03 | 95.2% |
| GetLucky | 3.09 | 4.02 | 2.06 | 94.5% |
| Casinostuen | 3.09 | 4.02 | 2.06 | 94.5% |
| bwin | 2.95 | 4.10 | 2.05 | 93.4% |
| Oddset | 2.65 | 3.80 | 2.28 best price | 92.7% |
| 888sport | 3.00 | 3.90 | 2.00 | 91.8% |
| Mr Green | 3.00 | 3.90 | 2.00 | 91.8% |
| Bet25 | 2.80 | 4.00 | 1.92 | 88.7% |
| BEST PRICE | 3.25 | 4.20 | 2.28 | 101.6% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 2.65–3.25 · 22.6% | 3.75–4.20 · 12.0% | 1.92–2.28 · 18.8% | 88.7–97.4% |
How did the Hoffenheim – Bayer Leverkusen odds move before kick-off?
The best price on Bayer Leverkusen drifted from 2.13 when odds opened on 11 Oct to 2.28 at kick-off, a 7.0% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | HOFFENHEIM | DRAW | BAYER LEVERKUSEN |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 11 Oct (open) | 3.06 | 4.10 | 2.13 |
| Sun 18 Oct | 2.92 | 4.25 | 2.32 |
| Sun 25 Oct (kick-off) | 3.25 | 4.20 | 2.28 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Both teams to score was priced at 70.6%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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