Barcelona – Real Madrid odds
Barcelona went into the match as heavy favourites against Real Madrid.
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Barcelona – Real Madrid: closing odds analysis
- Barcelona were favourites: the closing odds implied a 59% chance of a home win, 24% for Real Madrid and 16% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Barcelona 1.70 at Betano, the draw 6.40 at Spilhuset, Real Madrid 4.15 at Betano.
- Betano had the highest closing payout on the match result: 97.5%.
- Odds movement: the best price on the draw drifted from 4.80 at the opening to 6.40 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 80% chance of three or more goals and 74% that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Barcelona or Real Madrid?
Barcelona, by a distance: the closing odds put 35.4 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Barcelona – Real Madrid?
It depended on the outcome: Betano was best on Barcelona, Spilhuset on the draw and Betano on Real Madrid. Across all three outcomes Betano paid out the most (97.5%) and Bet25 the least (87.4%).
| BOOKMAKER | BARCELONA | DRAW | REAL MADRID | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betano | 1.70 best price | 5.10 | 4.15 best price | 97.5% |
| VBET | 1.60 | 6.20 | 3.96 | 96.3% |
| Merkur Bets | 1.65 | 5.50 | 4.00 | 96.2% |
| Spilhuset | 1.58 | 6.40 best price | 3.93 | 95.8% |
| SpreadEx | 1.60 | 6.00 | 3.90 | 95.4% |
| Expekt | 1.60 | 5.75 | 4.00 | 95.3% |
| LeoVegas | 1.60 | 5.75 | 4.00 | 95.3% |
| Casino House | 1.60 | 5.75 | 4.00 | 95.3% |
| Betinia | 1.61 | 6.00 | 3.80 | 95.2% |
| CampoBet | 1.61 | 6.00 | 3.80 | 95.2% |
| Casinomoto | 1.61 | 6.00 | 3.80 | 95.2% |
| Betoro | 1.61 | 6.00 | 3.80 | 95.2% |
| ComeOn | 1.57 | 5.94 | 4.06 | 95.1% |
| Betmaster | 1.62 | 5.40 | 4.00 | 95.0% |
| Unibet | 1.56 | 6.10 | 4.00 | 94.8% |
| Oddset | 1.60 | 5.75 | 3.90 | 94.8% |
| Stake | 1.55 | 6.00 | 4.10 | 94.7% |
| GetLucky | 1.56 | 5.89 | 4.02 | 94.4% |
| Casinostuen | 1.56 | 5.89 | 4.02 | 94.4% |
| bwin | 1.57 | 5.75 | 4.00 | 94.3% |
| 888sport | 1.57 | 5.00 | 3.90 | 91.5% |
| Mr Green | 1.57 | 5.00 | 3.90 | 91.5% |
| Bet25 | 1.50 | 5.60 | 3.35 | 87.4% |
| BEST PRICE | 1.70 | 6.40 | 4.15 | 101.5% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 1.50–1.70 · 13.3% | 5.00–6.40 · 28.0% | 3.35–4.15 · 23.9% | 87.4–97.5% |
How did the Barcelona – Real Madrid odds move before kick-off?
The best price on the draw drifted from 4.80 when odds opened on 12 Oct to 6.40 at kick-off, a 33.3% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | BARCELONA | DRAW | REAL MADRID |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 12 Oct (open) | 1.61 | 4.80 | 4.80 |
| Mon 19 Oct | 1.57 | 5.60 | 5.00 |
| Sun 25 Oct (kick-off) | 1.70 | 6.40 | 4.15 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Three or more goals was priced as more likely than not. Both teams to score was priced at 73.8%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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