Valencia – Villarreal odds
Villarreal went into the match as clear favourites against Valencia.
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Valencia – Villarreal: closing odds analysis
- Villarreal were favourites: the closing odds implied a 45% chance of an away win, 28% for Valencia and 27% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Valencia 3.65 at Betano, the draw 3.65 at Stake, Villarreal 2.15 at bwin.
- Betano had the highest closing payout on the match result: 97.3%.
- Odds movement: the best price on the draw shortened from 3.85 at the opening to 3.65 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 55% chance of three or more goals and 58% that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Valencia or Villarreal?
Villarreal, clearly: the closing odds put 17.3 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Valencia – Villarreal?
It depended on the outcome: Betano was best on Valencia, Stake on the draw and bwin on Villarreal. Across all three outcomes Betano paid out the most (97.3%) and Bet25 the least (89.4%).
| BOOKMAKER | VALENCIA | DRAW | VILLARREAL | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betano | 3.65 best price | 3.55 | 2.12 | 97.3% |
| Stake | 3.40 | 3.65 best price | 2.12 | 96.2% |
| VBET | 3.58 | 3.61 | 2.03 | 95.3% |
| Betinia | 3.33 | 3.60 | 2.12 | 95.3% |
| CampoBet | 3.33 | 3.60 | 2.12 | 95.3% |
| Casinomoto | 3.33 | 3.60 | 2.12 | 95.3% |
| Betoro | 3.33 | 3.60 | 2.12 | 95.3% |
| Casino House | 3.33 | 3.60 | 2.12 | 95.3% |
| ComeOn | 3.42 | 3.57 | 2.07 | 94.7% |
| Oddset | 3.40 | 3.55 | 2.08 | 94.6% |
| bwin | 3.25 | 3.50 | 2.15 best price | 94.5% |
| SpreadEx | 3.40 | 3.60 | 2.05 | 94.4% |
| GetLucky | 3.39 | 3.53 | 2.05 | 93.8% |
| Casinostuen | 3.39 | 3.53 | 2.05 | 93.8% |
| Betmaster | 3.35 | 3.35 | 2.08 | 92.8% |
| 888sport | 3.30 | 3.40 | 2.05 | 92.2% |
| Mr Green | 3.30 | 3.40 | 2.05 | 92.2% |
| Bet25 | 3.10 | 3.50 | 1.96 | 89.4% |
| BEST PRICE | 3.65 | 3.65 | 2.15 | 98.7% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 3.10–3.65 · 17.7% | 3.35–3.65 · 9.0% | 1.96–2.15 · 9.7% | 89.4–97.3% |
How did the Valencia – Villarreal odds move before kick-off?
The best price on the draw shortened from 3.85 when odds opened on 14 Oct to 3.65 at kick-off, a 5.2% drop.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | VALENCIA | DRAW | VILLARREAL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wed 14 Oct (open) | 3.60 | 3.85 | 2.13 |
| Mon 19 Oct | 3.25 | 3.80 | 2.25 |
| Sat 24 Oct (kick-off) | 3.65 | 3.65 | 2.15 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Three or more goals was priced as more likely than not. Both teams to score was priced at 58.1%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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