Toulouse – Troyes odds
Toulouse went into the match as heavy favourites against Troyes.
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Toulouse – Troyes: closing odds analysis
- Toulouse were favourites: the closing odds implied a 58% chance of a home win, 20% for Troyes and 23% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Toulouse 1.65 at bwin, the draw 4.30 at Stake, Troyes 5.20 at Stake.
- Oddset had the highest closing payout on the match result: 95.7%.
- Odds movement: the best price on Troyes drifted from 4.75 at the opening to 5.20 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 58% chance of three or more goals and 57% that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Toulouse or Troyes?
Toulouse, by a distance: the closing odds put 37.9 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Toulouse – Troyes?
It depended on the outcome: bwin was best on Toulouse, Stake on the draw and Stake on Troyes. Across all three outcomes Oddset paid out the most (95.7%) and Casinostuen the least (91.5%).
| BOOKMAKER | TOULOUSE | DRAW | TROYES | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oddset | 1.64 | 4.25 | 5.00 | 95.7% |
| VBET | 1.64 | 4.20 | 5.00 | 95.4% |
| bwin | 1.65 best price | 4.20 | 4.75 | 94.8% |
| Stake | 1.58 | 4.30 best price | 5.20 best price | 94.5% |
| Betinia | 1.63 | 4.20 | 4.75 | 94.2% |
| CampoBet | 1.63 | 4.20 | 4.75 | 94.2% |
| Casinomoto | 1.63 | 4.20 | 4.75 | 94.2% |
| Betoro | 1.63 | 4.20 | 4.75 | 94.2% |
| Casino House | 1.63 | 4.20 | 4.75 | 94.2% |
| Betmaster | 1.63 | 3.95 | 4.80 | 93.0% |
| SpreadEx | 1.61 | 4.00 | 4.75 | 92.6% |
| 888sport | 1.65 best price | 3.90 | 4.60 | 92.6% |
| Mr Green | 1.65 best price | 3.90 | 4.60 | 92.6% |
| ComeOn | 1.60 | 4.06 | 4.76 | 92.5% |
| Bet25 | 1.64 | 4.10 | 4.20 | 91.6% |
| GetLucky | 1.58 | 4.03 | 4.71 | 91.5% |
| Casinostuen | 1.58 | 4.03 | 4.71 | 91.5% |
| BEST PRICE | 1.65 | 4.30 | 5.20 | 97.0% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 1.58–1.65 · 4.4% | 3.90–4.30 · 10.3% | 4.20–5.20 · 23.8% | 91.5–95.7% |
How did the Toulouse – Troyes odds move before kick-off?
The best price on Troyes drifted from 4.75 when odds opened on 13 Oct to 5.20 at kick-off, a 9.5% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | TOULOUSE | DRAW | TROYES |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tue 13 Oct (open) | 1.72 | 4.40 | 4.75 |
| Sun 18 Oct | 1.66 | 4.40 | 5.00 |
| Sat 24 Oct (kick-off) | 1.65 | 4.30 | 5.20 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Three or more goals was priced as more likely than not. Both teams to score was priced at 56.6%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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