Sheffield United – Derby County odds
Sheffield United went into the match as heavy favourites against Derby County.
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Sheffield United – Derby County: closing odds analysis
- Sheffield United were favourites: the closing odds implied a 52% chance of a home win, 23% for Derby County and 25% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Sheffield United 1.85 at 888sport, the draw 4.00 at Casino House, Derby County 4.33 at Betinia.
- Betinia had the highest closing payout on the match result: 95.3%.
- Odds movement: the best price on Derby County drifted from 3.75 at the opening to 4.33 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 54% chance of three or more goals and 55% that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Sheffield United or Derby County?
Sheffield United, by a distance: the closing odds put 29.8 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Sheffield United – Derby County?
It depended on the outcome: 888sport was best on Sheffield United, Casino House on the draw and Betinia on Derby County. Across all three outcomes Betinia paid out the most (95.3%) and Betmaster the least (90.1%).
| BOOKMAKER | SHEFFIELD UNITED | DRAW | DERBY COUNTY | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betinia | 1.80 | 3.80 | 4.33 best price | 95.3% |
| CampoBet | 1.80 | 3.80 | 4.33 best price | 95.3% |
| Betoro | 1.80 | 3.80 | 4.33 best price | 95.3% |
| Betano | 1.78 | 3.90 | 4.30 | 95.2% |
| Casino House | 1.81 | 4.00 best price | 4.00 | 95.0% |
| Stake | 1.79 | 3.80 | 4.20 | 94.3% |
| Casinomoto | 1.77 | 3.75 | 4.25 | 93.7% |
| ComeOn | 1.76 | 3.76 | 4.26 | 93.6% |
| bwin | 1.77 | 3.75 | 4.20 | 93.5% |
| GetLucky | 1.75 | 3.73 | 4.22 | 92.9% |
| Casinostuen | 1.75 | 3.73 | 4.22 | 92.9% |
| 888sport | 1.85 best price | 3.50 | 3.90 | 92.4% |
| Mr Green | 1.85 best price | 3.50 | 3.90 | 92.4% |
| VBET | 1.76 | 3.67 | 3.85 | 90.9% |
| Betmaster | 1.74 | 3.50 | 4.00 | 90.1% |
| BEST PRICE | 1.85 | 4.00 | 4.33 | 97.9% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 1.74–1.85 · 6.3% | 3.50–4.00 · 14.3% | 3.85–4.33 · 12.5% | 90.1–95.3% |
How did the Sheffield United – Derby County odds move before kick-off?
The best price on Derby County drifted from 3.75 when odds opened on 16 Oct to 4.33 at kick-off, a 15.5% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | SHEFFIELD UNITED | DRAW | DERBY COUNTY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 16 Oct (open) | 2.00 | 3.50 | 3.75 |
| Tue 20 Oct | 1.90 | 4.00 | 4.05 |
| Sat 24 Oct (kick-off) | 1.85 | 3.90 | 4.33 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
The closing odds were close to an even split on three or more goals. Both teams to score was priced at 54.8%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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