Rayo Vallecano – Elche odds
Rayo Vallecano went into the match as heavy favourites against Elche.
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Rayo Vallecano – Elche: closing odds analysis
- Rayo Vallecano were favourites: the closing odds implied a 54% chance of a home win, 21% for Elche and 25% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Rayo Vallecano 1.82 at Betano, the draw 4.00 at CampoBet, Elche 4.60 at Betano.
- Betano had the highest closing payout on the match result: 97.7%.
- Odds movement: the best price on the draw shortened from 4.33 at the opening to 4.00 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 54% chance of three or more goals and 55% that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Rayo Vallecano or Elche?
Rayo Vallecano, by a distance: the closing odds put 32.8 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Rayo Vallecano – Elche?
It depended on the outcome: Betano was best on Rayo Vallecano, CampoBet on the draw and Betano on Elche. Across all three outcomes Betano paid out the most (97.7%) and Bet25 the least (90.4%).
| BOOKMAKER | RAYO VALLECANO | DRAW | ELCHE | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betano | 1.82 best price | 3.90 | 4.60 best price | 97.7% |
| Stake | 1.80 | 3.95 | 4.40 | 96.5% |
| VBET | 1.81 | 3.72 | 4.40 | 95.4% |
| bwin | 1.77 | 3.90 | 4.33 | 95.0% |
| Oddset | 1.74 | 3.90 | 4.50 | 94.9% |
| Betinia | 1.76 | 3.80 | 4.50 | 94.9% |
| Betoro | 1.76 | 3.80 | 4.50 | 94.9% |
| CampoBet | 1.72 | 4.00 best price | 4.50 | 94.9% |
| Casinomoto | 1.72 | 4.00 best price | 4.50 | 94.9% |
| Casino House | 1.72 | 4.00 best price | 4.50 | 94.9% |
| SpreadEx | 1.75 | 3.80 | 4.50 | 94.6% |
| ComeOn | 1.72 | 3.86 | 4.46 | 93.9% |
| 888sport | 1.75 | 3.70 | 4.40 | 93.5% |
| Mr Green | 1.75 | 3.70 | 4.40 | 93.5% |
| GetLucky | 1.71 | 3.83 | 4.42 | 93.3% |
| Casinostuen | 1.71 | 3.83 | 4.42 | 93.3% |
| Betmaster | 1.74 | 3.70 | 4.40 | 93.3% |
| Bet25 | 1.68 | 3.75 | 4.10 | 90.4% |
| BEST PRICE | 1.82 | 4.00 | 4.60 | 98.3% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 1.68–1.82 · 8.3% | 3.70–4.00 · 8.1% | 4.10–4.60 · 12.2% | 90.4–97.7% |
How did the Rayo Vallecano – Elche odds move before kick-off?
The best price on the draw shortened from 4.33 when odds opened on 14 Oct to 4.00 at kick-off, a 7.7% drop.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | RAYO VALLECANO | DRAW | ELCHE |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wed 14 Oct (open) | 1.80 | 4.33 | 4.65 |
| Mon 19 Oct | 1.80 | 4.33 | 4.65 |
| Sat 24 Oct (kick-off) | 1.82 | 4.00 | 4.60 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
The closing odds were close to an even split on three or more goals. Both teams to score was priced at 54.9%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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