Portsmouth – Millwall odds
Portsmouth went into the match as narrow favourites against Millwall.
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Portsmouth – Millwall: closing odds analysis
- Portsmouth were favourites: the closing odds implied a 38% chance of a home win, 33% for Millwall and 29% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Portsmouth 2.50 at CampoBet, the draw 3.40 at bwin, Millwall 3.00 at Betinia.
- Oddset had the highest closing payout on the match result: 96.3%.
- Odds movement: the best price on Millwall drifted from 2.90 at the opening to 3.00 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 48% chance of three or more goals and 54% that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Portsmouth or Millwall?
Portsmouth, but only just: the closing odds put 5.6 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Portsmouth – Millwall?
It depended on the outcome: CampoBet was best on Portsmouth, bwin on the draw and Betinia on Millwall. Across all three outcomes Oddset paid out the most (96.3%) and Betmaster the least (90.4%).
| BOOKMAKER | PORTSMOUTH | DRAW | MILLWALL | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oddset | 2.50 best price | 3.40 best price | 2.90 | 96.3% |
| Betinia | 2.45 | 3.25 | 3.00 best price | 95.3% |
| Betoro | 2.45 | 3.25 | 3.00 best price | 95.3% |
| CampoBet | 2.50 best price | 3.33 | 2.85 | 95.1% |
| Casino House | 2.50 best price | 3.33 | 2.85 | 95.1% |
| Betano | 2.47 | 3.30 | 2.90 | 95.0% |
| Stake | 2.43 | 3.35 | 2.85 | 94.3% |
| bwin | 2.40 | 3.40 best price | 2.85 | 94.2% |
| SpreadEx | 2.40 | 3.30 | 2.90 | 93.9% |
| Casinomoto | 2.45 | 3.25 | 2.85 | 93.7% |
| ComeOn | 2.44 | 3.27 | 2.82 | 93.4% |
| Bet25 | 2.41 | 3.35 | 2.75 | 92.8% |
| GetLucky | 2.41 | 3.24 | 2.80 | 92.5% |
| Casinostuen | 2.41 | 3.24 | 2.80 | 92.5% |
| 888sport | 2.45 | 3.10 | 2.80 | 91.9% |
| Mr Green | 2.45 | 3.10 | 2.80 | 91.9% |
| VBET | 2.34 | 3.15 | 2.81 | 90.9% |
| Betmaster | 2.38 | 3.10 | 2.75 | 90.4% |
| BEST PRICE | 2.50 | 3.40 | 3.00 | 97.3% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 2.34–2.50 · 6.8% | 3.10–3.40 · 9.7% | 2.75–3.00 · 9.1% | 90.4–96.3% |
How did the Portsmouth – Millwall odds move before kick-off?
The best price on Millwall drifted from 2.90 when odds opened on 17 Oct to 3.00 at kick-off, a 3.4% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | PORTSMOUTH | DRAW | MILLWALL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 17 Oct (open) | 2.44 | 3.40 | 2.90 |
| Tue 20 Oct | 2.67 | 3.40 | 2.65 |
| Sat 24 Oct (kick-off) | 2.50 | 3.40 | 3.00 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
The closing odds were close to an even split on three or more goals. Both teams to score was priced at 53.7%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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