Napoli – Roma odds
Napoli and Roma went into the match almost level in the odds.
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Napoli – Roma: closing odds analysis
- No clear favourite: the closing odds implied 36% for Napoli, 29% for a draw and 35% for Roma.
- Best closing odds: Napoli 2.75 at VBET, the draw 3.35 at Stake, Roma 2.75 at Stake.
- VBET had the highest closing payout on the match result: 96.2%.
- Odds movement: the best price on Roma drifted from 2.38 at the opening to 2.75 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 53% chance of three or more goals and 60% that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Napoli or Roma?
Neither side, really: the closing odds put only 0.2 percentage points between Napoli and Roma.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Napoli – Roma?
It depended on the outcome: VBET was best on Napoli, Stake on the draw and Stake on Roma. Across all three outcomes VBET paid out the most (96.2%) and Bet25 the least (89.2%).
| BOOKMAKER | NAPOLI | DRAW | ROMA | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VBET | 2.75 best price | 3.23 | 2.73 | 96.2% |
| Stake | 2.60 | 3.35 best price | 2.75 best price | 95.5% |
| Betinia | 2.62 | 3.33 | 2.71 | 95.1% |
| CampoBet | 2.62 | 3.33 | 2.71 | 95.1% |
| Casinomoto | 2.62 | 3.33 | 2.71 | 95.1% |
| Betoro | 2.62 | 3.33 | 2.71 | 95.1% |
| Casino House | 2.62 | 3.33 | 2.71 | 95.1% |
| Oddset | 2.70 | 3.25 | 2.65 | 94.7% |
| bwin | 2.70 | 3.20 | 2.65 | 94.3% |
| ComeOn | 2.67 | 3.27 | 2.63 | 94.3% |
| GetLucky | 2.65 | 3.24 | 2.60 | 93.4% |
| Casinostuen | 2.65 | 3.24 | 2.60 | 93.4% |
| Betmaster | 2.65 | 3.10 | 2.65 | 92.8% |
| 888sport | 2.62 | 3.10 | 2.62 | 92.1% |
| Mr Green | 2.62 | 3.10 | 2.62 | 92.1% |
| Bet25 | 2.50 | 3.20 | 2.45 | 89.2% |
| BEST PRICE | 2.75 | 3.35 | 2.75 | 97.5% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 2.50–2.75 · 10.0% | 3.10–3.35 · 8.1% | 2.45–2.75 · 12.2% | 89.2–96.2% |
How did the Napoli – Roma odds move before kick-off?
The best price on Roma drifted from 2.38 when odds opened on 16 Oct to 2.75 at kick-off, a 15.5% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | NAPOLI | DRAW | ROMA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 16 Oct (open) | 3.00 | 3.50 | 2.38 |
| Tue 20 Oct | 2.80 | 3.50 | 2.54 |
| Sat 24 Oct (kick-off) | 2.75 | 3.35 | 2.75 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
The closing odds were close to an even split on three or more goals. Both teams to score was priced at 60.1%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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