Mainz 05 – Werder Bremen odds
Mainz 05 went into the match as heavy favourites against Werder Bremen.
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Mainz 05 – Werder Bremen: closing odds analysis
- Mainz 05 were favourites: the closing odds implied a 55% chance of a home win, 22% for Werder Bremen and 23% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Mainz 05 1.76 at VBET, the draw 4.30 at Stake, Werder Bremen 4.65 at Betano.
- Betano had the highest closing payout on the match result: 97.2%.
- Odds movement: the best price on Werder Bremen drifted from 4.20 at the opening to 4.65 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 62% chance that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Mainz 05 or Werder Bremen?
Mainz 05, by a distance: the closing odds put 33.5 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Mainz 05 – Werder Bremen?
It depended on the outcome: VBET was best on Mainz 05, Stake on the draw and Betano on Werder Bremen. Across all three outcomes Betano paid out the most (97.2%) and Bet25 the least (91.0%).
| BOOKMAKER | MAINZ 05 | DRAW | WERDER BREMEN | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betano | 1.72 | 4.30 best price | 4.65 best price | 97.2% |
| Stake | 1.73 | 4.30 best price | 4.40 | 96.4% |
| VBET | 1.76 best price | 4.10 | 4.30 | 95.7% |
| ComeOn | 1.71 | 4.16 | 4.46 | 95.3% |
| Betinia | 1.69 | 4.20 | 4.50 | 95.1% |
| CampoBet | 1.69 | 4.20 | 4.50 | 95.1% |
| Casinomoto | 1.69 | 4.20 | 4.50 | 95.1% |
| Betoro | 1.69 | 4.20 | 4.50 | 95.1% |
| Casino House | 1.69 | 4.20 | 4.50 | 95.1% |
| Oddset | 1.75 | 4.00 | 4.25 | 94.6% |
| GetLucky | 1.70 | 4.12 | 4.41 | 94.5% |
| Casinostuen | 1.70 | 4.12 | 4.41 | 94.5% |
| bwin | 1.73 | 4.10 | 4.10 | 93.8% |
| 888sport | 1.72 | 3.90 | 4.00 | 91.9% |
| Mr Green | 1.72 | 3.90 | 4.00 | 91.9% |
| Bet25 | 1.66 | 4.10 | 3.95 | 91.0% |
| BEST PRICE | 1.76 | 4.30 | 4.65 | 98.4% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 1.66–1.76 · 6.0% | 3.90–4.30 · 10.3% | 3.95–4.65 · 17.7% | 91.0–97.2% |
How did the Mainz 05 – Werder Bremen odds move before kick-off?
The best price on Werder Bremen drifted from 4.20 when odds opened on 11 Oct to 4.65 at kick-off, a 10.7% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | MAINZ 05 | DRAW | WERDER BREMEN |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 11 Oct (open) | 1.78 | 4.10 | 4.20 |
| Sun 18 Oct | 1.72 | 4.30 | 4.75 |
| Sat 24 Oct (kick-off) | 1.76 | 4.30 | 4.65 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Both teams to score was priced at 61.9%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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