Hillerød Fodbold – AaB odds
AaB went into the match as clear favourites against Hillerød Fodbold.
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1st Half
2nd Half
Hillerød Fodbold – AaB: closing odds analysis
- AaB were favourites: the closing odds implied a 43% chance of an away win, 30% for Hillerød Fodbold and 26% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Hillerød Fodbold 3.37 at VBET, the draw 3.71 at VBET, AaB 2.22 at Betano.
- VBET had the highest closing payout on the match result: 95.3%.
- Odds movement: the best price on Hillerød Fodbold drifted from 2.90 at the opening to 3.37 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 56% chance of three or more goals and 59% that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Hillerød Fodbold or AaB?
AaB, clearly: the closing odds put 13.4 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Hillerød Fodbold – AaB?
It depended on the outcome: VBET was best on Hillerød Fodbold, VBET on the draw and Betano on AaB. Across all three outcomes VBET paid out the most (95.3%) and Mr Green the least (89.4%).
| BOOKMAKER | HILLERØD FODBOLD | DRAW | AAB | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VBET | 3.37 best price | 3.71 best price | 2.07 | 95.3% |
| Betinia | 3.15 | 3.66 | 2.13 | 94.3% |
| CampoBet | 3.15 | 3.66 | 2.13 | 94.3% |
| Casinomoto | 3.15 | 3.66 | 2.13 | 94.3% |
| Betoro | 3.15 | 3.66 | 2.13 | 94.3% |
| Casino House | 3.10 | 3.66 | 2.12 | 93.7% |
| Betano | 3.00 | 3.50 | 2.22 best price | 93.5% |
| ComeOn | 2.97 | 3.52 | 2.18 | 92.6% |
| Bet25 | 3.00 | 3.45 | 2.19 | 92.6% |
| GetLucky | 2.94 | 3.48 | 2.16 | 91.7% |
| Casinostuen | 2.94 | 3.48 | 2.16 | 91.7% |
| Stake | 3.10 | 3.50 | 2.07 | 91.6% |
| bwin | 3.10 | 3.40 | 2.10 | 91.5% |
| Betmaster | 2.90 | 3.30 | 2.16 | 90.0% |
| 888sport | 3.10 | 3.25 | 2.05 | 89.4% |
| Mr Green | 3.10 | 3.25 | 2.05 | 89.4% |
| BEST PRICE | 3.37 | 3.71 | 2.22 | 98.4% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 2.90–3.37 · 16.2% | 3.25–3.71 · 14.2% | 2.05–2.22 · 8.3% | 89.4–95.3% |
How did the Hillerød Fodbold – AaB odds move before kick-off?
The best price on Hillerød Fodbold drifted from 2.90 when odds opened on 17 Oct to 3.37 at kick-off, a 16.2% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | HILLERØD FODBOLD | DRAW | AAB |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 17 Oct (open) | 2.90 | 3.55 | 2.24 |
| Tue 20 Oct | 3.50 | 3.65 | 2.02 |
| Sat 24 Oct (kick-off) | 3.37 | 3.71 | 2.22 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Three or more goals was priced as more likely than not. Both teams to score was priced at 59.3%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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