Cardiff City – Birmingham City odds
Cardiff City and Birmingham City went into the match almost level in the odds.
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Cardiff City – Birmingham City: closing odds analysis
- No clear favourite: the closing odds implied 38% for Cardiff City, 25% for a draw and 37% for Birmingham City.
- Best closing odds: Cardiff City 2.60 at Stake, the draw 4.00 at Betinia, Birmingham City 2.60 at Oddset.
- Betano had the highest closing payout on the match result: 95.4%.
- Odds movement: the best price on the draw drifted from 3.75 at the opening to 4.00 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 60% chance of three or more goals and 63% that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Cardiff City or Birmingham City?
Neither side, really: the closing odds put only 0.2 percentage points between Cardiff City and Birmingham City.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Cardiff City – Birmingham City?
It depended on the outcome: Stake was best on Cardiff City, Betinia on the draw and Oddset on Birmingham City. Across all three outcomes Betano paid out the most (95.4%) and Betmaster the least (90.1%).
| BOOKMAKER | CARDIFF CITY | DRAW | BIRMINGHAM CITY | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betano | 2.55 | 3.75 | 2.57 | 95.4% |
| Oddset | 2.50 | 3.75 | 2.60 best price | 95.1% |
| Betinia | 2.45 | 4.00 best price | 2.54 | 95.1% |
| CampoBet | 2.45 | 4.00 best price | 2.54 | 95.1% |
| Betoro | 2.45 | 4.00 best price | 2.54 | 95.1% |
| Casino House | 2.45 | 4.00 best price | 2.54 | 95.1% |
| SpreadEx | 2.55 | 3.80 | 2.50 | 94.8% |
| Stake | 2.60 best price | 3.75 | 2.44 | 94.2% |
| bwin | 2.55 | 3.70 | 2.50 | 94.1% |
| ComeOn | 2.48 | 3.71 | 2.53 | 93.6% |
| Casinomoto | 2.50 | 3.66 | 2.50 | 93.2% |
| GetLucky | 2.45 | 3.68 | 2.50 | 92.6% |
| Casinostuen | 2.45 | 3.68 | 2.50 | 92.6% |
| 888sport | 2.50 | 3.60 | 2.45 | 92.1% |
| Mr Green | 2.50 | 3.60 | 2.45 | 92.1% |
| Bet25 | 2.38 | 3.80 | 2.41 | 91.1% |
| VBET | 2.46 | 3.60 | 2.41 | 91.0% |
| Betmaster | 2.42 | 3.45 | 2.46 | 90.1% |
| BEST PRICE | 2.60 | 4.00 | 2.60 | 98.1% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 2.38–2.60 · 9.2% | 3.45–4.00 · 15.9% | 2.41–2.60 · 7.9% | 90.1–95.4% |
How did the Cardiff City – Birmingham City odds move before kick-off?
The best price on the draw drifted from 3.75 when odds opened on 19 Oct to 4.00 at kick-off, a 6.7% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | CARDIFF CITY | DRAW | BIRMINGHAM CITY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 19 Oct (open) | 2.62 | 3.75 | 2.54 |
| Wed 21 Oct | 2.62 | 3.75 | 2.55 |
| Sat 24 Oct (kick-off) | 2.60 | 4.00 | 2.60 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Three or more goals was priced as more likely than not. Both teams to score was priced at 63.1%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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