Augsburg – Union Berlin odds
Augsburg went into the match as heavy favourites against Union Berlin.
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Augsburg – Union Berlin: closing odds analysis
- Augsburg were favourites: the closing odds implied a 55% chance of a home win, 22% for Union Berlin and 23% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Augsburg 1.75 at Betano, the draw 4.40 at Stake, Union Berlin 4.50 at Stake.
- Betano had the highest closing payout on the match result: 97.5%.
- Odds movement: the best price on the draw drifted from 4.10 at the opening to 4.40 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 63% chance that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Augsburg or Union Berlin?
Augsburg, by a distance: the closing odds put 32.7 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Augsburg – Union Berlin?
It depended on the outcome: Betano was best on Augsburg, Stake on the draw and Stake on Union Berlin. Across all three outcomes Betano paid out the most (97.5%) and Bet25 the least (90.6%).
| BOOKMAKER | AUGSBURG | DRAW | UNION BERLIN | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betano | 1.75 best price | 4.35 | 4.45 | 97.5% |
| Stake | 1.70 | 4.40 best price | 4.50 best price | 96.4% |
| Oddset | 1.73 | 4.25 | 4.25 | 95.4% |
| Betinia | 1.73 | 4.20 | 4.25 | 95.1% |
| CampoBet | 1.73 | 4.20 | 4.25 | 95.1% |
| Casinomoto | 1.73 | 4.20 | 4.25 | 95.1% |
| Betoro | 1.73 | 4.20 | 4.25 | 95.1% |
| Casino House | 1.73 | 4.20 | 4.25 | 95.1% |
| VBET | 1.70 | 4.10 | 4.50 best price | 94.8% |
| ComeOn | 1.71 | 4.16 | 4.26 | 94.3% |
| bwin | 1.70 | 4.20 | 4.20 | 93.9% |
| GetLucky | 1.70 | 4.12 | 4.22 | 93.6% |
| Casinostuen | 1.70 | 4.12 | 4.22 | 93.6% |
| 888sport | 1.72 | 3.90 | 4.00 | 91.9% |
| Mr Green | 1.72 | 3.90 | 4.00 | 91.9% |
| Bet25 | 1.66 | 4.20 | 3.80 | 90.6% |
| BEST PRICE | 1.75 | 4.40 | 4.50 | 98.0% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 1.66–1.75 · 5.4% | 3.90–4.40 · 12.8% | 3.80–4.50 · 18.4% | 90.6–97.5% |
How did the Augsburg – Union Berlin odds move before kick-off?
The best price on the draw drifted from 4.10 when odds opened on 11 Oct to 4.40 at kick-off, a 7.3% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | AUGSBURG | DRAW | UNION BERLIN |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 11 Oct (open) | 1.75 | 4.10 | 4.40 |
| Sat 17 Oct | 1.93 | 4.10 | 4.00 |
| Sat 24 Oct (kick-off) | 1.75 | 4.40 | 4.50 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Both teams to score was priced at 63.1%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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