Aston Villa – Man City odds
Man City went into the match as heavy favourites against Aston Villa.
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Aston Villa – Man City: closing odds analysis
- Man City were favourites: the closing odds implied a 58% chance of an away win, 20% for Aston Villa and 21% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Aston Villa 5.00 at Betinia, the draw 4.75 at ComeOn, Man City 1.67 at Betano.
- Betano had the highest closing payout on the match result: 97.4%.
- Odds movement: the best price on the draw drifted from 4.00 at the opening to 4.75 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 66% chance that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Aston Villa or Man City?
Man City, by a distance: the closing odds put 38.3 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Aston Villa – Man City?
It depended on the outcome: Betinia was best on Aston Villa, ComeOn on the draw and Betano on Man City. Across all three outcomes Betano paid out the most (97.4%) and Bet25 the least (92.2%).
| BOOKMAKER | ASTON VILLA | DRAW | MAN CITY | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betano | 4.75 | 4.60 | 1.67 best price | 97.4% |
| ComeOn | 4.85 | 4.75 best price | 1.61 | 96.4% |
| Stake | 4.70 | 4.70 | 1.62 | 95.9% |
| GetLucky | 4.81 | 4.71 | 1.60 | 95.7% |
| Casinostuen | 4.81 | 4.71 | 1.60 | 95.7% |
| Betmaster | 4.70 | 4.30 | 1.66 | 95.4% |
| VBET | 5.00 best price | 4.60 | 1.58 | 95.2% |
| Betinia | 5.00 best price | 4.33 | 1.61 | 95.1% |
| CampoBet | 5.00 best price | 4.33 | 1.61 | 95.1% |
| Casinomoto | 5.00 best price | 4.33 | 1.61 | 95.1% |
| Betoro | 5.00 best price | 4.33 | 1.61 | 95.1% |
| Casino House | 5.00 best price | 4.33 | 1.61 | 95.1% |
| Oddset | 4.50 | 4.50 | 1.64 | 94.9% |
| SpreadEx | 4.60 | 4.20 | 1.67 | 94.8% |
| bwin | 4.20 | 4.60 | 1.66 | 94.5% |
| 888sport | 4.50 | 4.00 | 1.65 | 92.7% |
| Mr Green | 4.50 | 4.00 | 1.65 | 92.7% |
| Bet25 | 4.20 | 4.60 | 1.59 | 92.2% |
| BEST PRICE | 5.00 | 4.75 | 1.67 | 99.1% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 4.20–5.00 · 19.0% | 4.00–4.75 · 18.8% | 1.58–1.67 · 5.7% | 92.2–97.4% |
How did the Aston Villa – Man City odds move before kick-off?
The best price on the draw drifted from 4.00 when odds opened on 10 Oct to 4.75 at kick-off, a 18.8% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | ASTON VILLA | DRAW | MAN CITY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 10 Oct (open) | 4.50 | 4.00 | 1.75 |
| Sat 17 Oct | 4.50 | 4.30 | 1.75 |
| Sat 24 Oct (kick-off) | 5.00 | 4.75 | 1.67 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Both teams to score was priced at 65.5%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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