Bolton – Middlesbrough odds
Middlesbrough went into the match as heavy favourites against Bolton.
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Bolton – Middlesbrough: closing odds analysis
- Middlesbrough were favourites: the closing odds implied a 60% chance of an away win, 19% for Bolton and 21% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Bolton 5.40 at Stake, the draw 4.80 at Stake, Middlesbrough 1.60 at Betano.
- Casino House had the highest closing payout on the match result: 95.5%.
- Odds movement: the best price on Bolton drifted from 4.40 at the opening to 5.40 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 61% chance that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Bolton or Middlesbrough?
Middlesbrough, by a distance: the closing odds put 41.0 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Bolton – Middlesbrough?
It depended on the outcome: Stake was best on Bolton, Stake on the draw and Betano on Middlesbrough. Across all three outcomes Casino House paid out the most (95.5%) and Betmaster the least (90.5%).
| BOOKMAKER | BOLTON | DRAW | MIDDLESBROUGH | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casino House | 5.00 | 4.75 | 1.57 | 95.5% |
| Oddset | 5.00 | 4.50 | 1.59 | 95.1% |
| Betano | 4.90 | 4.50 | 1.60 best price | 95.1% |
| Betinia | 5.33 | 4.33 | 1.58 | 95.1% |
| CampoBet | 5.33 | 4.33 | 1.58 | 95.1% |
| Betoro | 5.33 | 4.33 | 1.58 | 95.1% |
| Stake | 5.40 best price | 4.80 best price | 1.51 | 94.7% |
| SpreadEx | 4.75 | 4.60 | 1.57 | 93.9% |
| bwin | 4.75 | 4.50 | 1.58 | 93.8% |
| ComeOn | 4.95 | 4.46 | 1.56 | 93.7% |
| Casinomoto | 5.00 | 4.25 | 1.58 | 93.6% |
| GetLucky | 4.91 | 4.42 | 1.54 | 92.7% |
| Casinostuen | 4.91 | 4.42 | 1.54 | 92.7% |
| 888sport | 4.60 | 4.20 | 1.60 best price | 92.6% |
| Mr Green | 4.60 | 4.20 | 1.60 best price | 92.6% |
| Bet25 | 4.50 | 4.60 | 1.54 | 91.8% |
| VBET | 5.20 | 4.50 | 1.46 | 91.0% |
| Betmaster | 4.60 | 4.20 | 1.54 | 90.5% |
| BEST PRICE | 5.40 | 4.80 | 1.60 | 98.2% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 4.50–5.40 · 20.0% | 4.20–4.80 · 14.3% | 1.46–1.60 · 9.6% | 90.5–95.5% |
How did the Bolton – Middlesbrough odds move before kick-off?
The best price on Bolton drifted from 4.40 when odds opened on 17 Oct to 5.40 at kick-off, a 22.7% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | BOLTON | DRAW | MIDDLESBROUGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 17 Oct (open) | 4.40 | 4.10 | 1.75 |
| Tue 20 Oct | 4.75 | 4.50 | 1.71 |
| Fri 23 Oct (kick-off) | 5.40 | 4.80 | 1.60 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Both teams to score was priced at 61.0%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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