Thun – Hajduk Split odds
Hajduk Split went into the match as narrow favourites against Thun.
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Thun – Hajduk Split: closing odds analysis
- Hajduk Split were favourites: the closing odds implied a 41% chance of an away win, 34% for Thun and 25% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Thun 2.95 at Stake, the draw 3.80 at Stake, Hajduk Split 2.35 at Betano.
- Betano had the highest closing payout on the match result: 95.3%.
- Odds movement: the best price on Hajduk Split shortened from 2.60 at the opening to 2.35 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 59% chance of three or more goals and 65% that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Thun or Hajduk Split?
Hajduk Split, but only just: the closing odds put 7.5 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Thun – Hajduk Split?
It depended on the outcome: Stake was best on Thun, Stake on the draw and Betano on Hajduk Split. Across all three outcomes Betano paid out the most (95.3%) and Betmaster the least (90.1%).
| BOOKMAKER | THUN | DRAW | HAJDUK SPLIT | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betano | 2.80 | 3.75 | 2.35 best price | 95.3% |
| Stake | 2.95 best price | 3.80 best price | 2.19 | 94.4% |
| Betoro | 2.75 | 3.75 | 2.30 | 93.9% |
| Casino House | 2.75 | 3.75 | 2.30 | 93.9% |
| ComeOn | 2.72 | 3.67 | 2.29 | 92.9% |
| VBET | 2.85 | 3.71 | 2.18 | 92.7% |
| Betinia | 2.71 | 3.75 | 2.25 | 92.6% |
| CampoBet | 2.71 | 3.75 | 2.25 | 92.6% |
| 888sport | 2.75 | 3.60 | 2.25 | 92.1% |
| Mr Green | 2.75 | 3.60 | 2.25 | 92.1% |
| GetLucky | 2.70 | 3.63 | 2.27 | 92.0% |
| Casinostuen | 2.70 | 3.63 | 2.27 | 92.0% |
| Bet25 | 2.60 | 3.80 best price | 2.21 | 90.9% |
| bwin | 2.87 | 3.60 | 2.10 | 90.7% |
| Betmaster | 2.65 | 3.45 | 2.26 | 90.1% |
| BEST PRICE | 2.95 | 3.80 | 2.35 | 97.3% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 2.60–2.95 · 13.5% | 3.45–3.80 · 10.1% | 2.10–2.35 · 11.9% | 90.1–95.3% |
How did the Thun – Hajduk Split odds move before kick-off?
The best price on Hajduk Split shortened from 2.60 when odds opened on 18 Oct to 2.35 at kick-off, a 9.6% drop.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | THUN | DRAW | HAJDUK SPLIT |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 18 Oct (open) | 2.70 | 3.50 | 2.60 |
| Tue 20 Oct | 2.85 | 3.65 | 2.40 |
| Thu 22 Oct (kick-off) | 2.80 | 3.80 | 2.35 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Three or more goals was priced as more likely than not. Both teams to score was priced at 64.6%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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