Sturm Graz – Marseille odds
Marseille went into the match as clear favourites against Sturm Graz.
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Sturm Graz – Marseille: closing odds analysis
- Marseille were favourites: the closing odds implied a 45% chance of an away win, 29% for Sturm Graz and 26% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Sturm Graz 4.00 at Casino House, the draw 3.80 at Betano, Marseille 2.30 at bwin.
- VBET had the highest closing payout on the match result: 96.1%.
- Odds movement: the best price on Sturm Graz drifted from 3.75 at the opening to 4.00 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 58% chance of three or more goals and 64% that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Sturm Graz or Marseille?
Marseille, clearly: the closing odds put 16.5 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Sturm Graz – Marseille?
It depended on the outcome: Casino House was best on Sturm Graz, Betano on the draw and bwin on Marseille. Across all three outcomes VBET paid out the most (96.1%) and Bet25 the least (91.1%).
| BOOKMAKER | STURM GRAZ | DRAW | MARSEILLE | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VBET | 3.04 | 3.61 | 2.30 best price | 96.1% |
| Betano | 3.25 | 3.80 best price | 2.10 | 95.5% |
| Oddset | 3.25 | 3.75 | 2.11 | 95.4% |
| bwin | 2.90 | 3.60 | 2.30 best price | 94.6% |
| ComeOn | 3.22 | 3.71 | 2.09 | 94.5% |
| Stake | 2.95 | 3.60 | 2.26 | 94.4% |
| Casino House | 4.00 best price | 3.80 best price | 1.83 | 94.4% |
| Casinomoto | 3.40 | 3.75 | 2.00 | 94.3% |
| Betoro | 3.40 | 3.75 | 2.00 | 94.3% |
| SpreadEx | 3.25 | 3.60 | 2.10 | 94.2% |
| Betinia | 3.50 | 3.60 | 2.00 | 94.0% |
| CampoBet | 3.50 | 3.60 | 2.00 | 94.0% |
| GetLucky | 3.19 | 3.68 | 2.07 | 93.6% |
| Casinostuen | 3.19 | 3.68 | 2.07 | 93.6% |
| Expekt | 3.15 | 3.70 | 2.05 | 93.0% |
| 888sport | 3.30 | 3.50 | 2.05 | 92.9% |
| Mr Green | 3.30 | 3.50 | 2.05 | 92.9% |
| Bet25 | 3.00 | 3.75 | 2.01 | 91.1% |
| BEST PRICE | 4.00 | 3.80 | 2.30 | 105.5% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 2.90–4.00 · 37.9% | 3.50–3.80 · 8.6% | 1.83–2.30 · 25.7% | 91.1–96.1% |
How did the Sturm Graz – Marseille odds move before kick-off?
The best price on Sturm Graz drifted from 3.75 when odds opened on 16 Oct to 4.00 at kick-off, a 6.7% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | STURM GRAZ | DRAW | MARSEILLE |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 16 Oct (open) | 3.75 | 3.70 | 2.10 |
| Mon 19 Oct | 3.50 | 3.70 | 2.10 |
| Thu 22 Oct (kick-off) | 4.00 | 3.80 | 2.15 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Three or more goals was priced as more likely than not. Both teams to score was priced at 63.5%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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The odds imply probabilities; they are not predictions. OddsStat is a comparison service, not a bookmaker. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.