Hoffenheim – Lyon odds
Hoffenheim went into the match as heavy favourites against Lyon.
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Hoffenheim – Lyon: closing odds analysis
- Hoffenheim were favourites: the closing odds implied a 53% chance of a home win, 24% for Lyon and 23% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Hoffenheim 1.92 at Betinia, the draw 4.30 at Stake, Lyon 4.40 at bwin.
- Betano had the highest closing payout on the match result: 95.5%.
- Odds movement: the best price on Lyon drifted from 3.30 at the opening to 4.40 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 63% chance that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Hoffenheim or Lyon?
Hoffenheim, by a distance: the closing odds put 29.4 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Hoffenheim – Lyon?
It depended on the outcome: Betinia was best on Hoffenheim, Stake on the draw and bwin on Lyon. Across all three outcomes Betano paid out the most (95.5%) and Bet25 the least (91.4%).
| BOOKMAKER | HOFFENHEIM | DRAW | LYON | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betano | 1.78 | 4.20 | 4.05 | 95.5% |
| Oddset | 1.73 | 4.25 | 4.25 | 95.4% |
| ComeOn | 1.71 | 4.26 | 4.16 | 94.3% |
| Stake | 1.68 | 4.30 best price | 4.30 | 94.3% |
| bwin | 1.68 | 4.20 | 4.40 best price | 94.3% |
| Betoro | 1.92 best price | 3.80 | 3.60 | 94.2% |
| Casino House | 1.92 best price | 3.80 | 3.60 | 94.2% |
| Betinia | 1.92 best price | 4.00 | 3.40 | 93.9% |
| CampoBet | 1.92 best price | 4.00 | 3.40 | 93.9% |
| SpreadEx | 1.73 | 4.20 | 4.00 | 93.7% |
| GetLucky | 1.70 | 4.22 | 4.12 | 93.6% |
| Casinostuen | 1.70 | 4.22 | 4.12 | 93.6% |
| 888sport | 1.72 | 4.00 | 4.20 | 93.5% |
| Mr Green | 1.75 | 3.90 | 4.00 | 92.8% |
| VBET | 1.65 | 4.20 | 4.20 | 92.4% |
| Bet25 | 1.74 | 4.20 | 3.55 | 91.4% |
| BEST PRICE | 1.92 | 4.30 | 4.40 | 102.0% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 1.65–1.92 · 16.4% | 3.80–4.30 · 13.2% | 3.40–4.40 · 29.4% | 91.4–95.5% |
How did the Hoffenheim – Lyon odds move before kick-off?
The best price on Lyon drifted from 3.30 when odds opened on 16 Oct to 4.40 at kick-off, a 33.3% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | HOFFENHEIM | DRAW | LYON |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 16 Oct (open) | 2.31 | 3.85 | 3.30 |
| Mon 19 Oct | 2.31 | 4.00 | 3.45 |
| Thu 22 Oct (kick-off) | 1.92 | 4.26 | 4.40 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Both teams to score was priced at 62.6%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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