FC Nordsjælland – CSKA Sofia odds
FC Nordsjælland went into the match as heavy favourites against CSKA Sofia.
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FC Nordsjælland – CSKA Sofia: closing odds analysis
- FC Nordsjælland were favourites: the closing odds implied a 67% chance of a home win, 14% for CSKA Sofia and 19% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: FC Nordsjælland 1.42 at VBET, the draw 5.20 at Stake, CSKA Sofia 7.50 at VBET.
- VBET had the highest closing payout on the match result: 96.4%.
- Odds movement: the best price on CSKA Sofia drifted from 5.70 at the opening to 7.10 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 60% chance of three or more goals and 54% that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, FC Nordsjælland or CSKA Sofia?
FC Nordsjælland, by a distance: the closing odds put 53.1 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on FC Nordsjælland – CSKA Sofia?
It depended on the outcome: VBET was best on FC Nordsjælland, Stake on the draw and VBET on CSKA Sofia. Across all three outcomes VBET paid out the most (96.4%) and Betmaster the least (90.2%).
| BOOKMAKER | FC NORDSJÆLLAND | DRAW | CSKA SOFIA | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VBET | 1.42 best price | 5.00 | 7.50 best price | 96.4% |
| Betano | 1.42 best price | 5.00 | 6.90 | 95.3% |
| Stake | 1.38 | 5.20 best price | 7.20 | 94.7% |
| Betoro | 1.38 | 5.00 | 7.00 | 93.7% |
| Casino House | 1.38 | 5.00 | 7.00 | 93.7% |
| SpreadEx | 1.40 | 5.00 | 6.50 | 93.6% |
| Bet25 | 1.40 | 5.20 best price | 6.00 | 93.2% |
| ComeOn | 1.40 | 4.85 | 6.44 | 93.0% |
| Casinomoto | 1.40 | 4.75 | 6.50 | 92.7% |
| Betinia | 1.37 | 4.75 | 7.00 | 92.3% |
| CampoBet | 1.37 | 4.75 | 7.00 | 92.3% |
| 888sport | 1.36 | 4.80 | 7.00 | 92.0% |
| Mr Green | 1.36 | 4.80 | 7.00 | 92.0% |
| GetLucky | 1.38 | 4.81 | 6.38 | 91.8% |
| Casinostuen | 1.38 | 4.81 | 6.38 | 91.8% |
| bwin | 1.38 | 4.60 | 6.50 | 91.3% |
| Betmaster | 1.40 | 4.50 | 5.80 | 90.2% |
| BEST PRICE | 1.42 | 5.20 | 7.50 | 97.1% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 1.36–1.42 · 4.4% | 4.50–5.20 · 15.6% | 5.80–7.50 · 29.3% | 90.2–96.4% |
How did the FC Nordsjælland – CSKA Sofia odds move before kick-off?
The best price on CSKA Sofia drifted from 5.70 when odds opened on 16 Oct to 7.10 at kick-off, a 24.6% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | FC NORDSJÆLLAND | DRAW | CSKA SOFIA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 16 Oct (open) | 1.55 | 4.60 | 5.70 |
| Mon 19 Oct | 1.48 | 4.80 | 6.60 |
| Thu 22 Oct (kick-off) | 1.42 | 5.20 | 7.10 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Three or more goals was priced as more likely than not. Both teams to score was priced at 54.2%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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