Dinamo Zagreb – NEC Nijmegen odds
Dinamo Zagreb went into the match as heavy favourites against NEC Nijmegen.
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Dinamo Zagreb – NEC Nijmegen: closing odds analysis
- Dinamo Zagreb were favourites: the closing odds implied a 62% chance of a home win, 17% for NEC Nijmegen and 21% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Dinamo Zagreb 1.58 at VBET, the draw 4.75 at Oddset, NEC Nijmegen 5.75 at Casinomoto.
- VBET had the highest closing payout on the match result: 96.6%.
- Odds movement: the best price on NEC Nijmegen drifted from 4.40 at the opening to 5.75 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 60% chance of three or more goals and 56% that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Dinamo Zagreb or NEC Nijmegen?
Dinamo Zagreb, by a distance: the closing odds put 45.0 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Dinamo Zagreb – NEC Nijmegen?
It depended on the outcome: VBET was best on Dinamo Zagreb, Oddset on the draw and Casinomoto on NEC Nijmegen. Across all three outcomes VBET paid out the most (96.6%) and Betmaster the least (90.5%).
| BOOKMAKER | DINAMO ZAGREB | DRAW | NEC NIJMEGEN | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VBET | 1.58 best price | 4.60 | 5.40 | 96.6% |
| Oddset | 1.53 | 4.75 best price | 5.50 | 95.6% |
| Betano | 1.53 | 4.50 | 5.60 | 94.8% |
| ComeOn | 1.52 | 4.56 | 5.55 | 94.6% |
| bwin | 1.53 | 4.50 | 5.50 | 94.6% |
| Stake | 1.53 | 4.50 | 5.40 | 94.3% |
| Casinomoto | 1.50 | 4.50 | 5.75 best price | 94.1% |
| Betoro | 1.50 | 4.50 | 5.75 best price | 94.1% |
| Casino House | 1.50 | 4.50 | 5.75 best price | 94.1% |
| Betinia | 1.50 | 4.50 | 5.66 | 93.8% |
| CampoBet | 1.50 | 4.50 | 5.66 | 93.8% |
| SpreadEx | 1.50 | 4.50 | 5.60 | 93.7% |
| GetLucky | 1.50 | 4.51 | 5.50 | 93.4% |
| Casinostuen | 1.50 | 4.51 | 5.50 | 93.4% |
| Expekt | 1.50 | 4.40 | 5.50 | 93.0% |
| 888sport | 1.50 | 4.33 | 5.50 | 92.6% |
| Mr Green | 1.50 | 4.33 | 5.50 | 92.6% |
| Bet25 | 1.50 | 4.70 | 5.00 | 92.6% |
| Betmaster | 1.50 | 4.20 | 5.00 | 90.5% |
| BEST PRICE | 1.58 | 4.75 | 5.75 | 98.3% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 1.50–1.58 · 5.3% | 4.20–4.75 · 13.1% | 5.00–5.75 · 15.0% | 90.5–96.6% |
How did the Dinamo Zagreb – NEC Nijmegen odds move before kick-off?
The best price on NEC Nijmegen drifted from 4.40 when odds opened on 16 Oct to 5.75 at kick-off, a 30.7% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | DINAMO ZAGREB | DRAW | NEC NIJMEGEN |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 16 Oct (open) | 1.75 | 4.20 | 4.40 |
| Mon 19 Oct | 1.72 | 4.20 | 4.50 |
| Thu 22 Oct (kick-off) | 1.53 | 4.75 | 5.75 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Three or more goals was priced as more likely than not. Both teams to score was priced at 56.1%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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