Celje – Red Bull Salzburg odds
Red Bull Salzburg went into the match as heavy favourites against Celje.
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Celje – Red Bull Salzburg: closing odds analysis
- Red Bull Salzburg were favourites: the closing odds implied a 61% chance of an away win, 18% for Celje and 21% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Celje 5.66 at Betinia, the draw 4.75 at Betoro, Red Bull Salzburg 1.68 at bwin.
- Oddset had the highest closing payout on the match result: 95.6%.
- Odds movement: the best price on Celje drifted from 4.20 at the opening to 5.66 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 60% chance of three or more goals and 60% that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Celje or Red Bull Salzburg?
Red Bull Salzburg, by a distance: the closing odds put 42.9 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Celje – Red Bull Salzburg?
It depended on the outcome: Betinia was best on Celje, Betoro on the draw and bwin on Red Bull Salzburg. Across all three outcomes Oddset paid out the most (95.6%) and Mr Green the least (92.0%).
| BOOKMAKER | CELJE | DRAW | RED BULL SALZBURG | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oddset | 5.50 | 4.75 best price | 1.53 | 95.6% |
| Betano | 5.60 | 4.40 | 1.55 | 95.1% |
| Stake | 4.60 | 4.20 | 1.66 | 94.5% |
| Betoro | 5.50 | 4.75 best price | 1.50 | 94.4% |
| Casino House | 5.50 | 4.75 best price | 1.50 | 94.4% |
| ComeOn | 5.35 | 4.46 | 1.54 | 94.3% |
| bwin | 4.40 | 4.20 | 1.68 best price | 94.3% |
| SpreadEx | 5.25 | 4.40 | 1.55 | 93.9% |
| Betinia | 5.66 best price | 4.50 | 1.50 | 93.8% |
| CampoBet | 5.66 best price | 4.50 | 1.50 | 93.8% |
| GetLucky | 5.30 | 4.42 | 1.52 | 93.2% |
| Casinostuen | 5.30 | 4.42 | 1.52 | 93.2% |
| Expekt | 5.25 | 4.40 | 1.52 | 93.0% |
| Bet25 | 5.00 | 4.60 | 1.51 | 92.6% |
| VBET | 4.40 | 4.10 | 1.64 | 92.5% |
| 888sport | 5.50 | 4.20 | 1.50 | 92.0% |
| Mr Green | 5.50 | 4.20 | 1.50 | 92.0% |
| BEST PRICE | 5.66 | 4.75 | 1.68 | 101.8% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 4.40–5.66 · 28.6% | 4.10–4.75 · 15.9% | 1.50–1.68 · 12.0% | 92.0–95.6% |
How did the Celje – Red Bull Salzburg odds move before kick-off?
The best price on Celje drifted from 4.20 when odds opened on 16 Oct to 5.66 at kick-off, a 34.8% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | CELJE | DRAW | RED BULL SALZBURG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 16 Oct (open) | 4.20 | 3.90 | 1.90 |
| Mon 19 Oct | 4.80 | 4.10 | 1.70 |
| Thu 22 Oct (kick-off) | 5.66 | 4.75 | 1.55 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Three or more goals was priced as more likely than not. Both teams to score was priced at 60.3%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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