AGF – Egnatia odds
AGF went into the match as heavy favourites against Egnatia.
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AGF – Egnatia: closing odds analysis
- AGF were favourites: the closing odds implied a 64% chance of a home win, 15% for Egnatia and 21% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: AGF 1.50 at Betano, the draw 4.80 at Bet25, Egnatia 7.10 at VBET.
- VBET had the highest closing payout on the match result: 96.3%.
- Odds movement: the best price on Egnatia drifted from 4.90 at the opening to 7.20 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 56% chance of three or more goals and 52% that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, AGF or Egnatia?
AGF, by a distance: the closing odds put 49.6 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on AGF – Egnatia?
It depended on the outcome: Betano was best on AGF, Bet25 on the draw and VBET on Egnatia. Across all three outcomes VBET paid out the most (96.3%) and Betmaster the least (90.6%).
| BOOKMAKER | AGF | DRAW | EGNATIA | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VBET | 1.48 | 4.50 | 7.10 best price | 96.3% |
| Betano | 1.50 best price | 4.60 | 6.20 | 95.7% |
| Stake | 1.46 | 4.60 | 6.20 | 94.0% |
| SpreadEx | 1.44 | 4.60 | 6.50 | 94.0% |
| Betoro | 1.46 | 4.33 | 6.66 | 93.8% |
| Casino House | 1.46 | 4.33 | 6.66 | 93.8% |
| Bet25 | 1.43 | 4.80 best price | 6.00 | 93.1% |
| ComeOn | 1.43 | 4.56 | 6.24 | 92.7% |
| 888sport | 1.44 | 4.33 | 6.50 | 92.7% |
| Mr Green | 1.44 | 4.33 | 6.50 | 92.7% |
| Betinia | 1.44 | 4.33 | 6.33 | 92.3% |
| CampoBet | 1.44 | 4.33 | 6.33 | 92.3% |
| GetLucky | 1.41 | 4.52 | 6.18 | 91.6% |
| Casinostuen | 1.41 | 4.52 | 6.18 | 91.6% |
| bwin | 1.44 | 4.33 | 5.75 | 91.0% |
| Marathonbet | 1.42 | 4.25 | 6.15 | 90.7% |
| Betmaster | 1.43 | 4.30 | 5.80 | 90.6% |
| BEST PRICE | 1.50 | 4.80 | 7.10 | 98.4% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 1.41–1.50 · 6.4% | 4.25–4.80 · 12.9% | 5.75–7.10 · 23.5% | 90.6–96.3% |
How did the AGF – Egnatia odds move before kick-off?
The best price on Egnatia drifted from 4.90 when odds opened on 17 Oct to 7.20 at kick-off, a 46.9% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | AGF | DRAW | EGNATIA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 17 Oct (open) | 1.63 | 4.20 | 4.90 |
| Tue 20 Oct | 1.57 | 4.40 | 5.90 |
| Thu 22 Oct (kick-off) | 1.50 | 4.80 | 7.20 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Three or more goals was priced as more likely than not. Both teams to score was priced at 52.3%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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