Real Madrid – RB Leipzig odds
Real Madrid went into the match as heavy favourites against RB Leipzig.
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Real Madrid – RB Leipzig: closing odds analysis
- Real Madrid were favourites: the closing odds implied a 77% chance of a home win, 10% for RB Leipzig and 13% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Real Madrid 1.27 at Betano, the draw 8.00 at Betinia, RB Leipzig 11.00 at Betinia.
- Betano had the highest closing payout on the match result: 97.7%.
- Odds movement: the best price on RB Leipzig drifted from 9.75 at the opening to 11.00 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 65% chance that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Real Madrid or RB Leipzig?
Real Madrid, by a distance: the closing odds put 67.3 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Real Madrid – RB Leipzig?
It depended on the outcome: Betano was best on Real Madrid, Betinia on the draw and Betinia on RB Leipzig. Across all three outcomes Betano paid out the most (97.7%) and Bet25 the least (91.1%).
| BOOKMAKER | REAL MADRID | DRAW | RB LEIPZIG | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betano | 1.27 best price | 7.50 | 9.75 | 97.7% |
| VBET | 1.24 | 7.50 | 11.00 best price | 97.0% |
| Stake | 1.24 | 7.80 | 9.60 | 96.3% |
| Expekt | 1.25 | 7.50 | 9.00 | 95.7% |
| ComeOn | 1.25 | 7.43 | 8.91 | 95.5% |
| Oddset | 1.25 | 7.25 | 9.00 | 95.3% |
| Betinia | 1.20 | 8.00 best price | 11.00 best price | 95.3% |
| CampoBet | 1.20 | 8.00 best price | 11.00 best price | 95.3% |
| Casinomoto | 1.20 | 8.00 best price | 11.00 best price | 95.3% |
| Betoro | 1.20 | 8.00 best price | 11.00 best price | 95.3% |
| Casino House | 1.20 | 8.00 best price | 11.00 best price | 95.3% |
| bwin | 1.26 | 7.00 | 8.50 | 94.9% |
| GetLucky | 1.24 | 7.36 | 8.83 | 94.7% |
| Casinostuen | 1.24 | 7.36 | 8.83 | 94.7% |
| SpreadEx | 1.22 | 7.00 | 10.00 | 94.2% |
| 888sport | 1.22 | 6.50 | 9.00 | 92.2% |
| Mr Green | 1.22 | 6.50 | 9.00 | 92.2% |
| Bet25 | 1.22 | 7.40 | 7.00 | 91.1% |
| BEST PRICE | 1.27 | 8.00 | 11.00 | 99.7% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 1.20–1.27 · 5.8% | 6.50–8.00 · 23.1% | 7.00–11.00 · 57.1% | 91.1–97.7% |
How did the Real Madrid – RB Leipzig odds move before kick-off?
The best price on RB Leipzig drifted from 9.75 when odds opened on 15 Oct to 11.00 at kick-off, a 12.8% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | REAL MADRID | DRAW | RB LEIPZIG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 15 Oct (open) | 1.30 | 7.70 | 9.75 |
| Sun 18 Oct | 1.29 | 7.70 | 10.00 |
| Wed 21 Oct (kick-off) | 1.27 | 8.00 | 11.00 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Both teams to score was priced at 65.2%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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