Bayern Munich – Arsenal odds
Bayern Munich went into the match as narrow favourites against Arsenal.
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Bayern Munich – Arsenal: closing odds analysis
- Bayern Munich were favourites: the closing odds implied a 40% chance of a home win, 34% for Arsenal and 26% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Bayern Munich 2.45 at Betano, the draw 3.85 at Betano, Arsenal 2.90 at Stake.
- Betano had the highest closing payout on the match result: 97.6%.
- Odds movement: the best price on the draw shortened from 3.95 at the opening to 3.85 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 59% chance of three or more goals and 62% that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Bayern Munich or Arsenal?
Bayern Munich, but only just: the closing odds put 6.3 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Bayern Munich – Arsenal?
It depended on the outcome: Betano was best on Bayern Munich, Betano on the draw and Stake on Arsenal. Across all three outcomes Betano paid out the most (97.6%) and Bet25 the least (90.2%).
| BOOKMAKER | BAYERN MUNICH | DRAW | ARSENAL | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betano | 2.45 best price | 3.85 best price | 2.80 | 97.6% |
| VBET | 2.40 | 3.82 | 2.88 | 97.5% |
| Stake | 2.35 | 3.70 | 2.90 best price | 96.1% |
| ComeOn | 2.38 | 3.66 | 2.82 | 95.4% |
| Oddset | 2.37 | 3.70 | 2.80 | 95.3% |
| Betinia | 2.36 | 3.80 | 2.75 | 95.2% |
| CampoBet | 2.36 | 3.80 | 2.75 | 95.2% |
| Casinomoto | 2.36 | 3.80 | 2.75 | 95.2% |
| Betoro | 2.36 | 3.80 | 2.75 | 95.2% |
| Casino House | 2.36 | 3.80 | 2.75 | 95.2% |
| Expekt | 2.38 | 3.65 | 2.80 | 95.1% |
| GetLucky | 2.35 | 3.63 | 2.80 | 94.5% |
| Casinostuen | 2.35 | 3.63 | 2.80 | 94.5% |
| bwin | 2.30 | 3.70 | 2.75 | 93.6% |
| 888sport | 2.30 | 3.50 | 2.75 | 92.2% |
| Mr Green | 2.30 | 3.50 | 2.75 | 92.2% |
| Bet25 | 2.15 | 3.75 | 2.65 | 90.2% |
| BEST PRICE | 2.45 | 3.85 | 2.90 | 98.7% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 2.15–2.45 · 14.0% | 3.50–3.85 · 10.0% | 2.65–2.90 · 9.4% | 90.2–97.6% |
How did the Bayern Munich – Arsenal odds move before kick-off?
The best price on the draw shortened from 3.95 when odds opened on 14 Oct to 3.85 at kick-off, a 2.5% drop.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | BAYERN MUNICH | DRAW | ARSENAL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wed 14 Oct (open) | 2.50 | 3.95 | 2.85 |
| Sat 17 Oct | 2.20 | 3.90 | 3.15 |
| Wed 21 Oct (kick-off) | 2.45 | 3.85 | 2.85 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Three or more goals was priced as more likely than not. Both teams to score was priced at 62.1%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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