Porto – PSV odds
Porto went into the match as heavy favourites against PSV.
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Porto – PSV: closing odds analysis
- Porto were favourites: the closing odds implied a 63% chance of a home win, 17% for PSV and 20% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Porto 1.61 at 888sport, the draw 5.00 at Stake, PSV 6.30 at VBET.
- Betano had the highest closing payout on the match result: 97.8%.
- Odds movement: the best price on PSV drifted from 4.50 at the opening to 6.30 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 60% chance of three or more goals and 55% that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Porto or PSV?
Porto, by a distance: the closing odds put 45.7 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Porto – PSV?
It depended on the outcome: 888sport was best on Porto, Stake on the draw and VBET on PSV. Across all three outcomes Betano paid out the most (97.8%) and Bet25 the least (92.1%).
| BOOKMAKER | PORTO | DRAW | PSV | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betano | 1.57 | 4.70 | 5.80 | 97.8% |
| VBET | 1.52 | 4.75 | 6.30 best price | 97.4% |
| Stake | 1.47 | 5.00 best price | 6.20 | 96.0% |
| Oddset | 1.52 | 4.75 | 5.75 | 95.9% |
| Expekt | 1.52 | 4.70 | 5.75 | 95.7% |
| ComeOn | 1.51 | 4.66 | 5.84 | 95.4% |
| Betinia | 1.50 | 4.75 | 5.75 | 95.1% |
| CampoBet | 1.50 | 4.75 | 5.75 | 95.1% |
| Casinomoto | 1.50 | 4.75 | 5.75 | 95.1% |
| Betoro | 1.50 | 4.75 | 5.75 | 95.1% |
| Casino House | 1.50 | 4.75 | 5.75 | 95.1% |
| GetLucky | 1.49 | 4.61 | 5.79 | 94.3% |
| Casinostuen | 1.49 | 4.61 | 5.79 | 94.3% |
| bwin | 1.46 | 4.60 | 6.00 | 93.5% |
| Betmaster | 1.51 | 4.30 | 5.60 | 93.2% |
| 888sport | 1.61 best price | 4.33 | 4.33 | 92.3% |
| Mr Green | 1.61 best price | 4.33 | 4.33 | 92.3% |
| Bet25 | 1.48 | 4.60 | 5.20 | 92.1% |
| BEST PRICE | 1.61 | 5.00 | 6.30 | 102.1% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 1.46–1.61 · 10.3% | 4.30–5.00 · 16.3% | 4.33–6.30 · 45.5% | 92.1–97.8% |
How did the Porto – PSV odds move before kick-off?
The best price on PSV drifted from 4.50 when odds opened on 15 Oct to 6.30 at kick-off, a 40.0% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | PORTO | DRAW | PSV |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 15 Oct (open) | 1.78 | 4.33 | 4.50 |
| Sun 18 Oct | 1.67 | 4.60 | 4.85 |
| Tue 20 Oct (kick-off) | 1.61 | 5.00 | 6.30 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Three or more goals was priced as more likely than not. Both teams to score was priced at 54.8%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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