Man City – AEK Athens odds
Man City went into the match as heavy favourites against AEK Athens.
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Man City – AEK Athens: closing odds analysis
- Man City were favourites: the closing odds implied a 83% chance of a home win, 6% for AEK Athens and 11% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Man City 1.18 at bwin, the draw 13.00 at 888sport, AEK Athens 26.00 at 888sport.
- Betano had the highest closing payout on the match result: 97.5%.
- Odds movement: the best price on AEK Athens shortened from 50.00 at the opening to 26.00 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 52% chance that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Man City or AEK Athens?
Man City, by a distance: the closing odds put 77.0 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Man City – AEK Athens?
It depended on the outcome: bwin was best on Man City, 888sport on the draw and 888sport on AEK Athens. Across all three outcomes Betano paid out the most (97.5%) and Bet25 the least (93.5%).
| BOOKMAKER | MAN CITY | DRAW | AEK ATHENS | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betano | 1.18 best price | 8.50 | 16.50 | 97.5% |
| Stake | 1.15 | 9.40 | 16.00 | 96.3% |
| VBET | 1.16 | 8.40 | 17.00 | 96.2% |
| Oddset | 1.16 | 8.50 | 15.00 | 95.6% |
| Expekt | 1.15 | 9.00 | 15.00 | 95.5% |
| ComeOn | 1.15 | 8.72 | 14.86 | 95.1% |
| Betinia | 1.15 | 8.50 | 15.00 | 94.9% |
| CampoBet | 1.15 | 8.50 | 15.00 | 94.9% |
| Casinomoto | 1.15 | 8.50 | 15.00 | 94.9% |
| Betoro | 1.15 | 8.50 | 15.00 | 94.9% |
| Casino House | 1.15 | 8.50 | 15.00 | 94.9% |
| bwin | 1.18 best price | 8.25 | 11.50 | 94.7% |
| 888sport | 1.06 | 13.00 best price | 26.00 best price | 94.6% |
| Mr Green | 1.06 | 13.00 best price | 26.00 best price | 94.6% |
| GetLucky | 1.14 | 8.63 | 14.72 | 94.3% |
| Casinostuen | 1.14 | 8.63 | 14.72 | 94.3% |
| Betmaster | 1.14 | 8.40 | 14.00 | 93.7% |
| Bet25 | 1.15 | 8.60 | 12.00 | 93.5% |
| BEST PRICE | 1.18 | 13.00 | 26.00 | 103.9% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 1.06–1.18 · 11.1% | 8.25–13.00 · 57.6% | 11.50–26.00 · 126.1% | 93.5–97.5% |
How did the Man City – AEK Athens odds move before kick-off?
The best price on AEK Athens shortened from 50.00 when odds opened on 15 Oct to 26.00 at kick-off, a 48.0% drop.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | MAN CITY | DRAW | AEK ATHENS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 15 Oct (open) | 1.08 | 20.00 | 50.00 |
| Sun 18 Oct | 1.10 | 20.00 | 31.00 |
| Tue 20 Oct (kick-off) | 1.18 | 20.00 | 26.00 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Both teams to score was priced at 52.0%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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