Liverpool – Villarreal odds
Liverpool went into the match as heavy favourites against Villarreal.
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Liverpool – Villarreal: closing odds analysis
- Liverpool were favourites: the closing odds implied a 61% chance of a home win, 17% for Villarreal and 21% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Liverpool 1.62 at Betano, the draw 4.70 at Stake, Villarreal 5.80 at Stake.
- Betano had the highest closing payout on the match result: 97.8%.
- Odds movement: the best price on Villarreal shortened from 6.80 at the opening to 5.80 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 57% chance that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Liverpool or Villarreal?
Liverpool, by a distance: the closing odds put 43.7 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Liverpool – Villarreal?
It depended on the outcome: Betano was best on Liverpool, Stake on the draw and Stake on Villarreal. Across all three outcomes Betano paid out the most (97.8%) and Bet25 the least (91.2%).
| BOOKMAKER | LIVERPOOL | DRAW | VILLARREAL | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betano | 1.62 best price | 4.55 | 5.40 | 97.8% |
| VBET | 1.57 | 4.60 | 5.80 best price | 97.4% |
| Stake | 1.53 | 4.70 best price | 5.80 best price | 96.3% |
| Oddset | 1.58 | 4.50 | 5.25 | 95.6% |
| Expekt | 1.57 | 4.50 | 5.25 | 95.3% |
| ComeOn | 1.57 | 4.56 | 5.15 | 95.2% |
| Betinia | 1.55 | 4.33 | 5.66 | 95.0% |
| CampoBet | 1.55 | 4.33 | 5.66 | 95.0% |
| Casinomoto | 1.55 | 4.33 | 5.66 | 95.0% |
| Betoro | 1.55 | 4.33 | 5.66 | 95.0% |
| Casino House | 1.55 | 4.33 | 5.66 | 95.0% |
| SpreadEx | 1.57 | 4.40 | 5.25 | 94.9% |
| GetLucky | 1.56 | 4.51 | 5.10 | 94.4% |
| Casinostuen | 1.56 | 4.51 | 5.10 | 94.4% |
| bwin | 1.55 | 4.33 | 5.25 | 93.8% |
| Betmaster | 1.47 | 4.60 | 5.80 best price | 93.5% |
| 888sport | 1.50 | 4.33 | 5.50 | 92.6% |
| Mr Green | 1.50 | 4.33 | 5.50 | 92.6% |
| Bet25 | 1.50 | 4.60 | 4.70 | 91.2% |
| BEST PRICE | 1.62 | 4.70 | 5.80 | 99.8% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 1.47–1.62 · 10.2% | 4.33–4.70 · 8.5% | 4.70–5.80 · 23.4% | 91.2–97.8% |
How did the Liverpool – Villarreal odds move before kick-off?
The best price on Villarreal shortened from 6.80 when odds opened on 15 Oct to 5.80 at kick-off, a 14.7% drop.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | LIVERPOOL | DRAW | VILLARREAL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 15 Oct (open) | 1.52 | 5.60 | 6.80 |
| Sun 18 Oct | 1.55 | 5.30 | 6.00 |
| Tue 20 Oct (kick-off) | 1.62 | 5.30 | 5.80 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Both teams to score was priced at 56.8%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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