Harrogate Town – Bury odds
Harrogate Town went into the match as heavy favourites against Bury.
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2nd Half
Harrogate Town – Bury: closing odds analysis
- Harrogate Town were favourites: the closing odds implied a 54% chance of a home win, 24% for Bury and 22% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Harrogate Town 1.74 at VBET, the draw 4.10 at Stake, Bury 4.10 at bwin.
- bwin had the highest closing payout on the match result: 91.8%.
- Odds movement: the best price on Bury shortened from 5.50 at the opening to 4.10 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 58% chance that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Harrogate Town or Bury?
Harrogate Town, by a distance: the closing odds put 30.3 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Harrogate Town – Bury?
It depended on the outcome: VBET was best on Harrogate Town, Stake on the draw and bwin on Bury. Across all three outcomes bwin paid out the most (91.8%) and VBET the least (90.9%).
| BOOKMAKER | HARROGATE TOWN | DRAW | BURY | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| bwin | 1.68 | 4.00 | 4.10 best price | 91.8% |
| Stake | 1.66 | 4.10 best price | 4.00 | 91.2% |
| VBET | 1.74 best price | 4.10 best price | 3.55 | 90.9% |
| BEST PRICE | 1.74 | 4.10 | 4.10 | 94.1% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 1.66–1.74 · 4.8% | 4.00–4.10 · 2.5% | 3.55–4.10 · 15.5% | 90.9–91.8% |
How did the Harrogate Town – Bury odds move before kick-off?
The best price on Bury shortened from 5.50 when odds opened on 19 Oct to 4.10 at kick-off, a 25.5% drop.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | HARROGATE TOWN | DRAW | BURY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 19 Oct (open) | 1.55 | 4.33 | 5.50 |
| Tue 20 Oct | 1.87 | 4.10 | 4.20 |
| Tue 20 Oct (kick-off) | 1.74 | 4.10 | 4.10 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Both teams to score was priced at 57.8%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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