Monza – Cagliari odds
Monza went into the match as narrow favourites against Cagliari.
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Monza – Cagliari: closing odds analysis
- Monza were favourites: the closing odds implied a 39% chance of a home win, 31% for Cagliari and 30% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Monza 2.62 at VBET, the draw 3.30 at Stake, Cagliari 3.10 at Betinia.
- VBET had the highest closing payout on the match result: 96.2%.
- Odds movement: the best price on Monza drifted from 2.26 at the opening to 2.62 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 46% chance of three or more goals and 53% that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Monza or Cagliari?
Monza, but only just: the closing odds put 8.0 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Monza – Cagliari?
It depended on the outcome: VBET was best on Monza, Stake on the draw and Betinia on Cagliari. Across all three outcomes VBET paid out the most (96.2%) and Mr Green the least (90.8%).
| BOOKMAKER | MONZA | DRAW | CAGLIARI | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VBET | 2.62 best price | 3.17 | 2.92 | 96.2% |
| Stake | 2.50 | 3.30 best price | 2.95 | 96.0% |
| Betinia | 2.37 | 3.25 | 3.10 best price | 95.0% |
| CampoBet | 2.37 | 3.25 | 3.10 best price | 95.0% |
| Casinomoto | 2.37 | 3.25 | 3.10 best price | 95.0% |
| Betoro | 2.37 | 3.25 | 3.10 best price | 95.0% |
| Casino House | 2.37 | 3.25 | 3.10 best price | 95.0% |
| Oddset | 2.42 | 3.20 | 3.05 | 94.9% |
| bwin | 2.50 | 3.25 | 2.85 | 94.5% |
| ComeOn | 2.39 | 3.12 | 3.02 | 93.5% |
| Betmaster | 2.41 | 3.05 | 3.00 | 92.9% |
| GetLucky | 2.37 | 3.09 | 2.99 | 92.6% |
| Casinostuen | 2.37 | 3.09 | 2.99 | 92.6% |
| 888sport | 2.30 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 90.8% |
| Mr Green | 2.30 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 90.8% |
| BEST PRICE | 2.62 | 3.30 | 3.10 | 99.3% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 2.30–2.62 · 13.9% | 3.00–3.30 · 10.0% | 2.85–3.10 · 8.8% | 90.8–96.2% |
How did the Monza – Cagliari odds move before kick-off?
The best price on Monza drifted from 2.26 when odds opened on 11 Oct to 2.62 at kick-off, a 15.9% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | MONZA | DRAW | CAGLIARI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 11 Oct (open) | 2.26 | 3.25 | 3.41 |
| Thu 15 Oct | 2.38 | 3.25 | 3.18 |
| Mon 19 Oct (kick-off) | 2.62 | 3.30 | 3.10 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
The closing odds were close to an even split on three or more goals. Both teams to score was priced at 53.4%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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