Leeds – Man Utd odds
Leeds and Man Utd went into the match almost level in the odds.
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Leeds – Man Utd: closing odds analysis
- No clear favourite: the closing odds implied 38% for Leeds, 28% for a draw and 34% for Man Utd.
- Best closing odds: Leeds 2.65 at Betano, the draw 3.50 at Stake, Man Utd 3.00 at Casino House.
- Betano had the highest closing payout on the match result: 97.6%.
- Odds movement: the best price on Man Utd drifted from 2.38 at the opening to 3.00 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 53% chance of three or more goals and 54% that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Leeds or Man Utd?
Neither side, really: the closing odds put only 3.6 percentage points between Leeds and Man Utd.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Leeds – Man Utd?
It depended on the outcome: Betano was best on Leeds, Stake on the draw and Casino House on Man Utd. Across all three outcomes Betano paid out the most (97.6%) and Mr Green the least (92.1%).
| BOOKMAKER | LEEDS | DRAW | MAN UTD | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betano | 2.65 best price | 3.50 best price | 2.77 | 97.6% |
| VBET | 2.55 | 3.36 | 2.85 | 96.1% |
| Stake | 2.47 | 3.50 best price | 2.85 | 96.0% |
| ComeOn | 2.58 | 3.42 | 2.72 | 95.5% |
| Casino House | 2.36 | 3.40 | 3.00 best price | 95.1% |
| bwin | 2.50 | 3.40 | 2.80 | 95.1% |
| Betinia | 2.57 | 3.40 | 2.71 | 95.0% |
| CampoBet | 2.57 | 3.40 | 2.71 | 95.0% |
| Casinomoto | 2.57 | 3.40 | 2.71 | 95.0% |
| Betoro | 2.57 | 3.40 | 2.71 | 95.0% |
| SpreadEx | 2.30 | 3.50 best price | 3.00 best price | 94.9% |
| Oddset | 2.55 | 3.40 | 2.70 | 94.6% |
| GetLucky | 2.55 | 3.38 | 2.70 | 94.5% |
| Casinostuen | 2.55 | 3.38 | 2.70 | 94.5% |
| Bet25 | 2.55 | 3.50 best price | 2.55 | 93.5% |
| Betmaster | 2.55 | 3.20 | 2.70 | 93.0% |
| 888sport | 2.30 | 3.40 | 2.80 | 92.1% |
| Mr Green | 2.30 | 3.40 | 2.80 | 92.1% |
| BEST PRICE | 2.65 | 3.50 | 3.00 | 100.4% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 2.30–2.65 · 15.2% | 3.20–3.50 · 9.4% | 2.55–3.00 · 17.6% | 92.1–97.6% |
How did the Leeds – Man Utd odds move before kick-off?
The best price on Man Utd drifted from 2.38 when odds opened on 5 Oct to 3.00 at kick-off, a 26.1% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | LEEDS | DRAW | MAN UTD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 5 Oct (open) | 2.90 | 3.65 | 2.38 |
| Sun 11 Oct | 2.80 | 3.80 | 2.75 |
| Sun 18 Oct (kick-off) | 2.65 | 3.50 | 3.00 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
The closing odds were close to an even split on three or more goals. Both teams to score was priced at 54.5%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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