Juventus – Lazio odds
Juventus went into the match as heavy favourites against Lazio.
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Juventus – Lazio: closing odds analysis
- Juventus were favourites: the closing odds implied a 60% chance of a home win, 17% for Lazio and 23% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Juventus 1.64 at VBET, the draw 4.20 at Betinia, Lazio 5.75 at Betinia.
- VBET had the highest closing payout on the match result: 96.0%.
- Odds movement: the best price on the draw drifted from 3.90 at the opening to 5.10 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 53% chance of three or more goals and 52% that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Juventus or Lazio?
Juventus, by a distance: the closing odds put 42.9 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Juventus – Lazio?
It depended on the outcome: VBET was best on Juventus, Betinia on the draw and Betinia on Lazio. Across all three outcomes VBET paid out the most (96.0%) and Bet25 the least (91.3%).
| BOOKMAKER | JUVENTUS | DRAW | LAZIO | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VBET | 1.64 best price | 4.00 | 5.50 | 96.0% |
| Stake | 1.63 | 4.10 | 5.40 | 95.9% |
| Betinia | 1.57 | 4.20 best price | 5.75 best price | 95.3% |
| CampoBet | 1.57 | 4.20 best price | 5.75 best price | 95.3% |
| Casinomoto | 1.57 | 4.20 best price | 5.75 best price | 95.3% |
| Betoro | 1.57 | 4.20 best price | 5.75 best price | 95.3% |
| Casino House | 1.57 | 4.20 best price | 5.75 best price | 95.3% |
| Oddset | 1.58 | 4.00 | 5.75 best price | 94.6% |
| ComeOn | 1.57 | 4.06 | 5.65 | 94.3% |
| bwin | 1.63 | 4.00 | 5.00 | 94.0% |
| Betmaster | 1.58 | 3.85 | 5.60 | 93.4% |
| GetLucky | 1.55 | 4.02 | 5.59 | 93.2% |
| Casinostuen | 1.55 | 4.02 | 5.59 | 93.2% |
| 888sport | 1.53 | 3.90 | 5.50 | 91.6% |
| Mr Green | 1.53 | 3.90 | 5.50 | 91.6% |
| Bet25 | 1.54 | 3.95 | 5.20 | 91.3% |
| BEST PRICE | 1.64 | 4.20 | 5.75 | 97.9% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 1.53–1.64 · 7.2% | 3.85–4.20 · 9.1% | 5.00–5.75 · 15.0% | 91.3–96.0% |
How did the Juventus – Lazio odds move before kick-off?
The best price on the draw drifted from 3.90 when odds opened on 11 Oct to 5.10 at kick-off, a 30.8% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | JUVENTUS | DRAW | LAZIO |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 11 Oct (open) | 1.65 | 3.90 | 5.40 |
| Thu 15 Oct | 1.67 | 3.90 | 5.25 |
| Sun 18 Oct (kick-off) | 1.64 | 5.10 | 5.75 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
The closing odds were close to an even split on three or more goals. Both teams to score was priced at 51.9%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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