Fiorentina – Como odds
Como went into the match as clear favourites against Fiorentina.
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Fiorentina – Como: closing odds analysis
- Como were favourites: the closing odds implied a 45% chance of an away win, 28% for Fiorentina and 27% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Fiorentina 3.50 at Betinia, the draw 3.65 at Stake, Como 2.30 at bwin.
- Stake had the highest closing payout on the match result: 96.4%.
- Odds movement: the best price on Como drifted from 2.08 at the opening to 2.30 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 58% chance of three or more goals and 63% that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Fiorentina or Como?
Como, clearly: the closing odds put 16.7 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Fiorentina – Como?
It depended on the outcome: Betinia was best on Fiorentina, Stake on the draw and bwin on Como. Across all three outcomes Stake paid out the most (96.4%) and Bet25 the least (89.3%).
| BOOKMAKER | FIORENTINA | DRAW | COMO | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stake | 3.15 | 3.65 best price | 2.24 | 96.4% |
| Oddset | 3.40 | 3.65 best price | 2.08 | 95.3% |
| VBET | 3.10 | 3.45 | 2.29 | 95.3% |
| Betinia | 3.50 best price | 3.50 | 2.08 | 95.0% |
| CampoBet | 3.50 best price | 3.50 | 2.08 | 95.0% |
| Casinomoto | 3.50 best price | 3.50 | 2.08 | 95.0% |
| Betoro | 3.50 best price | 3.50 | 2.08 | 95.0% |
| Casino House | 3.50 best price | 3.50 | 2.08 | 95.0% |
| ComeOn | 3.37 | 3.62 | 2.06 | 94.5% |
| bwin | 2.95 | 3.50 | 2.30 best price | 94.4% |
| GetLucky | 3.34 | 3.58 | 2.04 | 93.6% |
| Casinostuen | 3.34 | 3.58 | 2.04 | 93.6% |
| Betmaster | 3.35 | 3.45 | 2.07 | 93.3% |
| 888sport | 3.30 | 3.50 | 2.00 | 91.8% |
| Mr Green | 3.30 | 3.50 | 2.00 | 91.8% |
| Bet25 | 3.10 | 3.55 | 1.94 | 89.3% |
| BEST PRICE | 3.50 | 3.65 | 2.30 | 100.6% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 2.95–3.50 · 18.6% | 3.45–3.65 · 5.8% | 1.94–2.30 · 18.6% | 89.3–96.4% |
How did the Fiorentina – Como odds move before kick-off?
The best price on Como drifted from 2.08 when odds opened on 13 Oct to 2.30 at kick-off, a 10.6% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | FIORENTINA | DRAW | COMO |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tue 13 Oct (open) | 3.50 | 3.70 | 2.08 |
| Fri 16 Oct | 3.40 | 3.75 | 2.10 |
| Sun 18 Oct (kick-off) | 3.50 | 3.65 | 2.30 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Three or more goals was priced as more likely than not. Both teams to score was priced at 62.6%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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