Celta Vigo – Deportivo Alavés odds
Celta Vigo went into the match as clear favourites against Deportivo Alavés.
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Celta Vigo – Deportivo Alavés: closing odds analysis
- Celta Vigo were favourites: the closing odds implied a 43% chance of a home win, 27% for Deportivo Alavés and 30% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Celta Vigo 2.32 at Betano, the draw 3.25 at Betano, Deportivo Alavés 3.70 at Stake.
- Betano had the highest closing payout on the match result: 97.6%.
- Odds movement: the best price on Celta Vigo drifted from 2.05 at the opening to 2.32 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 42% chance of three or more goals and 44% that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Celta Vigo or Deportivo Alavés?
Celta Vigo, clearly: the closing odds put 15.5 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Celta Vigo – Deportivo Alavés?
It depended on the outcome: Betano was best on Celta Vigo, Betano on the draw and Stake on Deportivo Alavés. Across all three outcomes Betano paid out the most (97.6%) and Bet25 the least (87.5%).
| BOOKMAKER | CELTA VIGO | DRAW | DEPORTIVO ALAVÉS | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betano | 2.32 best price | 3.25 best price | 3.50 | 97.6% |
| Stake | 2.19 | 3.20 | 3.70 best price | 96.2% |
| VBET | 2.21 | 3.06 | 3.70 best price | 95.3% |
| Oddset | 2.20 | 3.25 best price | 3.45 | 95.0% |
| SpreadEx | 2.20 | 3.20 | 3.40 | 94.2% |
| ComeOn | 2.30 | 3.07 | 3.32 | 94.2% |
| bwin | 2.20 | 3.00 | 3.60 | 93.8% |
| GetLucky | 2.28 | 3.04 | 3.29 | 93.3% |
| Casinostuen | 2.28 | 3.04 | 3.29 | 93.3% |
| Betmaster | 2.27 | 2.95 | 3.35 | 92.8% |
| 888sport | 2.10 | 3.20 | 3.40 | 92.4% |
| Mr Green | 2.10 | 3.20 | 3.40 | 92.4% |
| Bet25 | 1.90 | 3.15 | 3.35 | 87.5% |
| BEST PRICE | 2.32 | 3.25 | 3.70 | 99.1% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 1.90–2.32 · 22.1% | 2.95–3.25 · 10.2% | 3.29–3.70 · 12.5% | 87.5–97.6% |
How did the Celta Vigo – Deportivo Alavés odds move before kick-off?
The best price on Celta Vigo drifted from 2.05 when odds opened on 10 Oct to 2.32 at kick-off, a 13.2% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | CELTA VIGO | DRAW | DEPORTIVO ALAVÉS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 10 Oct (open) | 2.05 | 3.55 | 3.95 |
| Wed 14 Oct | 2.18 | 3.50 | 3.80 |
| Sun 18 Oct (kick-off) | 2.32 | 3.50 | 3.70 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Fewer than three goals was the likelier outcome in the closing odds. Both teams to score was priced at 44.4%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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