AC Milan – Atalanta odds
AC Milan went into the match as heavy favourites against Atalanta.
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AC Milan – Atalanta: closing odds analysis
- AC Milan were favourites: the closing odds implied a 57% chance of a home win, 20% for Atalanta and 23% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: AC Milan 1.81 at Oddset, the draw 4.40 at Stake, Atalanta 5.20 at Stake.
- Stake had the highest closing payout on the match result: 96.4%.
- Odds movement: the best price on Atalanta drifted from 4.20 at the opening to 5.20 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 58% chance of three or more goals and 57% that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, AC Milan or Atalanta?
AC Milan, by a distance: the closing odds put 37.1 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on AC Milan – Atalanta?
It depended on the outcome: Oddset was best on AC Milan, Stake on the draw and Stake on Atalanta. Across all three outcomes Stake paid out the most (96.4%) and Bet25 the least (90.1%).
| BOOKMAKER | AC MILAN | DRAW | ATALANTA | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stake | 1.62 | 4.40 best price | 5.20 best price | 96.4% |
| VBET | 1.66 | 4.10 | 5.20 best price | 96.3% |
| Oddset | 1.81 best price | 3.80 | 4.25 | 95.2% |
| Betinia | 1.66 | 4.20 | 4.75 | 95.1% |
| CampoBet | 1.66 | 4.20 | 4.75 | 95.1% |
| Casinomoto | 1.66 | 4.20 | 4.75 | 95.1% |
| Betoro | 1.66 | 4.20 | 4.75 | 95.1% |
| Casino House | 1.72 | 3.80 | 4.75 | 94.8% |
| bwin | 1.63 | 4.20 | 4.80 | 94.3% |
| ComeOn | 1.62 | 4.16 | 4.85 | 94.0% |
| Betmaster | 1.64 | 3.95 | 4.80 | 93.3% |
| GetLucky | 1.61 | 4.12 | 4.81 | 93.3% |
| Casinostuen | 1.61 | 4.12 | 4.81 | 93.3% |
| Mr Green | 1.66 | 3.75 | 4.75 | 92.6% |
| 888sport | 1.66 | 3.75 | 4.60 | 92.0% |
| Bet25 | 1.58 | 4.10 | 4.30 | 90.1% |
| BEST PRICE | 1.81 | 4.40 | 5.20 | 102.9% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 1.58–1.81 · 14.6% | 3.75–4.40 · 17.3% | 4.25–5.20 · 22.4% | 90.1–96.4% |
How did the AC Milan – Atalanta odds move before kick-off?
The best price on Atalanta drifted from 4.20 when odds opened on 11 Oct to 5.20 at kick-off, a 23.8% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | AC MILAN | DRAW | ATALANTA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 11 Oct (open) | 1.87 | 3.70 | 4.20 |
| Wed 14 Oct | 1.87 | 3.75 | 4.20 |
| Sun 18 Oct (kick-off) | 1.81 | 4.40 | 5.20 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Three or more goals was priced as more likely than not. Both teams to score was priced at 57.2%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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