Werder Bremen – Paderborn odds
Werder Bremen went into the match as heavy favourites against Paderborn.
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Werder Bremen – Paderborn: closing odds analysis
- Werder Bremen were favourites: the closing odds implied a 55% chance of a home win, 22% for Paderborn and 23% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Werder Bremen 1.78 at Betano, the draw 4.40 at Stake, Paderborn 4.75 at VBET.
- Betano had the highest closing payout on the match result: 97.6%.
- Odds movement: the best price on Paderborn drifted from 4.00 at the opening to 4.75 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 61% chance that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Werder Bremen or Paderborn?
Werder Bremen, by a distance: the closing odds put 32.8 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Werder Bremen – Paderborn?
It depended on the outcome: Betano was best on Werder Bremen, Stake on the draw and VBET on Paderborn. Across all three outcomes Betano paid out the most (97.6%) and Bet25 the least (90.6%).
| BOOKMAKER | WERDER BREMEN | DRAW | PADERBORN | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betano | 1.78 best price | 4.20 | 4.45 | 97.6% |
| Stake | 1.68 | 4.40 best price | 4.60 | 96.2% |
| Oddset | 1.74 | 4.25 | 4.25 | 95.7% |
| VBET | 1.65 | 4.30 | 4.75 best price | 95.3% |
| Betinia | 1.73 | 4.20 | 4.25 | 95.1% |
| CampoBet | 1.73 | 4.20 | 4.25 | 95.1% |
| Casinomoto | 1.73 | 4.20 | 4.25 | 95.1% |
| Betoro | 1.73 | 4.20 | 4.25 | 95.1% |
| Casino House | 1.73 | 4.20 | 4.25 | 95.1% |
| ComeOn | 1.72 | 4.16 | 4.16 | 94.1% |
| bwin | 1.68 | 4.10 | 4.40 | 93.8% |
| GetLucky | 1.71 | 4.12 | 4.12 | 93.4% |
| Casinostuen | 1.71 | 4.12 | 4.12 | 93.4% |
| 888sport | 1.72 | 3.90 | 4.00 | 91.9% |
| Mr Green | 1.72 | 3.90 | 4.00 | 91.9% |
| Bet25 | 1.66 | 4.20 | 3.80 | 90.6% |
| BEST PRICE | 1.78 | 4.40 | 4.75 | 100.0% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 1.65–1.78 · 7.9% | 3.90–4.40 · 12.8% | 3.80–4.75 · 25.0% | 90.6–97.6% |
How did the Werder Bremen – Paderborn odds move before kick-off?
The best price on Paderborn drifted from 4.00 when odds opened on 5 Oct to 4.75 at kick-off, a 18.8% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | WERDER BREMEN | DRAW | PADERBORN |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 5 Oct (open) | 1.82 | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| Sun 11 Oct | 1.82 | 4.20 | 4.10 |
| Sat 17 Oct (kick-off) | 1.78 | 4.40 | 4.75 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Both teams to score was priced at 61.4%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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