Villarreal – Elche odds
Villarreal went into the match as heavy favourites against Elche.
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Villarreal – Elche: closing odds analysis
- Villarreal were favourites: the closing odds implied a 67% chance of a home win, 15% for Elche and 18% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Villarreal 1.47 at Betano, the draw 5.40 at Stake, Elche 6.80 at Stake.
- Betano had the highest closing payout on the match result: 97.3%.
- Odds movement: the best price on Villarreal shortened from 1.50 at the opening to 1.47 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 58% chance that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Villarreal or Elche?
Villarreal, by a distance: the closing odds put 51.6 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Villarreal – Elche?
It depended on the outcome: Betano was best on Villarreal, Stake on the draw and Stake on Elche. Across all three outcomes Betano paid out the most (97.3%) and Bet25 the least (91.3%).
| BOOKMAKER | VILLARREAL | DRAW | ELCHE | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betano | 1.47 best price | 5.10 | 6.60 | 97.3% |
| VBET | 1.44 | 5.20 | 6.60 | 96.3% |
| Stake | 1.41 | 5.40 best price | 6.80 best price | 96.0% |
| Oddset | 1.41 | 5.25 | 6.50 | 94.9% |
| Betinia | 1.41 | 5.33 | 6.33 | 94.8% |
| CampoBet | 1.41 | 5.33 | 6.33 | 94.8% |
| Casinomoto | 1.41 | 5.33 | 6.33 | 94.8% |
| Betoro | 1.41 | 5.33 | 6.33 | 94.8% |
| Casino House | 1.41 | 5.33 | 6.33 | 94.8% |
| ComeOn | 1.41 | 5.15 | 6.44 | 94.5% |
| bwin | 1.43 | 5.00 | 6.25 | 94.4% |
| SpreadEx | 1.40 | 5.00 | 6.50 | 93.6% |
| GetLucky | 1.39 | 5.10 | 6.38 | 93.3% |
| Casinostuen | 1.39 | 5.10 | 6.38 | 93.3% |
| Betmaster | 1.43 | 4.80 | 6.00 | 93.1% |
| 888sport | 1.44 | 4.60 | 6.00 | 92.7% |
| Mr Green | 1.44 | 4.60 | 6.00 | 92.7% |
| Bet25 | 1.38 | 5.20 | 5.60 | 91.3% |
| BEST PRICE | 1.47 | 5.40 | 6.80 | 98.8% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 1.38–1.47 · 6.5% | 4.60–5.40 · 17.4% | 5.60–6.80 · 21.4% | 91.3–97.3% |
How did the Villarreal – Elche odds move before kick-off?
The best price on Villarreal shortened from 1.50 when odds opened on 10 Oct to 1.47 at kick-off, a 2.0% drop.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | VILLARREAL | DRAW | ELCHE |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 10 Oct (open) | 1.50 | 5.90 | 6.80 |
| Tue 13 Oct | 1.50 | 5.90 | 6.80 |
| Sat 17 Oct (kick-off) | 1.47 | 5.90 | 6.80 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Both teams to score was priced at 58.4%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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