Venezia – Napoli odds
Napoli went into the match as heavy favourites against Venezia.
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Venezia – Napoli: closing odds analysis
- Napoli were favourites: the closing odds implied a 54% chance of an away win, 21% for Venezia and 25% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Venezia 4.75 at Betinia, the draw 4.00 at Casino House, Napoli 1.83 at bwin.
- Stake had the highest closing payout on the match result: 95.9%.
- Odds movement: the best price on Napoli drifted from 1.72 at the opening to 1.83 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 57% chance of three or more goals and 56% that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Venezia or Napoli?
Napoli, by a distance: the closing odds put 32.9 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Venezia – Napoli?
It depended on the outcome: Betinia was best on Venezia, Casino House on the draw and bwin on Napoli. Across all three outcomes Stake paid out the most (95.9%) and Bet25 the least (89.9%).
| BOOKMAKER | VENEZIA | DRAW | NAPOLI | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stake | 4.40 | 3.95 | 1.78 | 95.9% |
| Betinia | 4.75 best price | 3.80 | 1.73 | 95.1% |
| CampoBet | 4.75 best price | 3.80 | 1.73 | 95.1% |
| Casinomoto | 4.75 best price | 3.80 | 1.73 | 95.1% |
| Betoro | 4.75 best price | 3.80 | 1.73 | 95.1% |
| VBET | 4.50 | 3.65 | 1.80 | 95.1% |
| Casino House | 4.50 | 4.00 best price | 1.72 | 94.9% |
| Oddset | 4.50 | 4.00 best price | 1.71 | 94.6% |
| bwin | 4.10 | 3.70 | 1.83 best price | 94.3% |
| ComeOn | 4.36 | 3.91 | 1.73 | 94.1% |
| GetLucky | 4.32 | 3.88 | 1.72 | 93.4% |
| Casinostuen | 4.32 | 3.88 | 1.72 | 93.4% |
| Betmaster | 4.30 | 3.70 | 1.75 | 93.1% |
| 888sport | 4.20 | 3.80 | 1.70 | 91.8% |
| Mr Green | 4.20 | 3.80 | 1.70 | 91.8% |
| Bet25 | 3.95 | 3.90 | 1.66 | 89.9% |
| BEST PRICE | 4.75 | 4.00 | 1.83 | 99.3% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 3.95–4.75 · 20.3% | 3.65–4.00 · 9.6% | 1.66–1.83 · 10.2% | 89.9–95.9% |
How did the Venezia – Napoli odds move before kick-off?
The best price on Napoli drifted from 1.72 when odds opened on 13 Oct to 1.83 at kick-off, a 6.4% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | VENEZIA | DRAW | NAPOLI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tue 13 Oct (open) | 4.80 | 4.20 | 1.72 |
| Thu 15 Oct | 4.90 | 4.20 | 1.69 |
| Sat 17 Oct (kick-off) | 4.75 | 4.40 | 1.83 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Three or more goals was priced as more likely than not. Both teams to score was priced at 56.2%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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