Valencia – Athletic Club odds
Athletic Club went into the match as narrow favourites against Valencia.
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Valencia – Athletic Club: closing odds analysis
- Athletic Club were favourites: the closing odds implied a 41% chance of an away win, 30% for Valencia and 29% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Valencia 3.33 at Betinia, the draw 3.35 at Stake, Athletic Club 2.36 at VBET.
- Betano had the highest closing payout on the match result: 97.4%.
- Odds movement: the best price on Valencia shortened from 3.72 at the opening to 3.33 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 45% chance of three or more goals and 49% that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Valencia or Athletic Club?
Athletic Club, but only just: the closing odds put 11.9 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Valencia – Athletic Club?
It depended on the outcome: Betinia was best on Valencia, Stake on the draw and VBET on Athletic Club. Across all three outcomes Betano paid out the most (97.4%) and Bet25 the least (90.4%).
| BOOKMAKER | VALENCIA | DRAW | ATHLETIC CLUB | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betano | 3.30 | 3.35 best price | 2.35 | 97.4% |
| Stake | 3.25 | 3.35 best price | 2.31 | 96.2% |
| VBET | 3.28 | 3.21 | 2.36 best price | 96.1% |
| Betinia | 3.33 best price | 3.25 | 2.25 | 95.0% |
| CampoBet | 3.33 best price | 3.25 | 2.25 | 95.0% |
| Casinomoto | 3.33 best price | 3.25 | 2.25 | 95.0% |
| Betoro | 3.33 best price | 3.25 | 2.25 | 95.0% |
| Casino House | 3.33 best price | 3.25 | 2.25 | 95.0% |
| Oddset | 3.15 | 3.25 | 2.34 | 95.0% |
| SpreadEx | 3.20 | 3.25 | 2.30 | 94.8% |
| ComeOn | 3.17 | 3.32 | 2.26 | 94.4% |
| bwin | 3.10 | 3.20 | 2.35 | 94.3% |
| GetLucky | 3.14 | 3.29 | 2.24 | 93.6% |
| Casinostuen | 3.14 | 3.29 | 2.24 | 93.6% |
| Betmaster | 3.10 | 3.10 | 2.34 | 93.2% |
| 888sport | 3.10 | 3.20 | 2.25 | 92.6% |
| Mr Green | 3.10 | 3.20 | 2.25 | 92.6% |
| Bet25 | 2.95 | 3.20 | 2.20 | 90.4% |
| BEST PRICE | 3.33 | 3.35 | 2.36 | 97.8% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 2.95–3.33 · 12.9% | 3.10–3.35 · 8.1% | 2.20–2.36 · 7.3% | 90.4–97.4% |
How did the Valencia – Athletic Club odds move before kick-off?
The best price on Valencia shortened from 3.72 when odds opened on 10 Oct to 3.33 at kick-off, a 10.5% drop.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | VALENCIA | DRAW | ATHLETIC CLUB |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 10 Oct (open) | 3.72 | 3.50 | 2.18 |
| Wed 14 Oct | 3.50 | 3.45 | 2.25 |
| Sat 17 Oct (kick-off) | 3.33 | 3.35 | 2.36 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Fewer than three goals was the likelier outcome in the closing odds. Both teams to score was priced at 49.5%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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