Southampton – Bolton odds
Southampton went into the match as heavy favourites against Bolton.
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Southampton – Bolton: closing odds analysis
- Southampton were favourites: the closing odds implied a 66% chance of a home win, 15% for Bolton and 19% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Southampton 1.45 at Betano, the draw 5.20 at Bet25, Bolton 6.50 at Betano.
- Betano had the highest closing payout on the match result: 95.1%.
- Odds movement: the best price on Bolton shortened from 7.00 at the opening to 6.60 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 57% chance that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Southampton or Bolton?
Southampton, by a distance: the closing odds put 50.6 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Southampton – Bolton?
It depended on the outcome: Betano was best on Southampton, Bet25 on the draw and Betano on Bolton. Across all three outcomes Betano paid out the most (95.1%) and Betmaster the least (90.5%).
| BOOKMAKER | SOUTHAMPTON | DRAW | BOLTON | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betano | 1.45 best price | 4.80 | 6.50 best price | 95.1% |
| Betinia | 1.44 | 5.00 | 6.33 | 95.0% |
| CampoBet | 1.44 | 5.00 | 6.33 | 95.0% |
| Betoro | 1.44 | 5.00 | 6.33 | 95.0% |
| Casino House | 1.44 | 5.00 | 6.33 | 95.0% |
| Oddset | 1.44 | 5.00 | 6.25 | 94.8% |
| bwin | 1.43 | 5.00 | 6.25 | 94.4% |
| ComeOn | 1.41 | 4.95 | 6.24 | 93.3% |
| Bet25 | 1.41 | 5.20 best price | 5.60 | 92.6% |
| SpreadEx | 1.40 | 5.00 | 6.00 | 92.5% |
| GetLucky | 1.39 | 4.91 | 6.18 | 92.2% |
| Casinostuen | 1.39 | 4.91 | 6.18 | 92.2% |
| 888sport | 1.40 | 4.80 | 6.00 | 91.8% |
| Mr Green | 1.40 | 4.80 | 6.00 | 91.8% |
| VBET | 1.39 | 4.70 | 6.00 | 91.0% |
| Betmaster | 1.41 | 4.60 | 5.60 | 90.5% |
| Stake | 1.42 | 4.80 | — | — |
| BEST PRICE | 1.45 | 5.20 | 6.50 | 96.5% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 1.39–1.45 · 4.3% | 4.60–5.20 · 13.0% | 5.60–6.50 · 16.1% | 90.5–95.1% |
How did the Southampton – Bolton odds move before kick-off?
The best price on Bolton shortened from 7.00 when odds opened on 13 Oct to 6.60 at kick-off, a 5.7% drop.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | SOUTHAMPTON | DRAW | BOLTON |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tue 13 Oct (open) | 1.41 | 5.20 | 7.00 |
| Thu 15 Oct | 1.47 | 5.20 | 7.00 |
| Sat 17 Oct (kick-off) | 1.45 | 5.20 | 6.60 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Both teams to score was priced at 56.5%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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