Schalke 04 – Mainz 05 odds
Mainz 05 went into the match as narrow favourites against Schalke 04.
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Schalke 04 – Mainz 05: closing odds analysis
- Mainz 05 were favourites: the closing odds implied a 41% chance of an away win, 32% for Schalke 04 and 27% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Schalke 04 3.05 at Betano, the draw 3.70 at Betano, Mainz 05 2.42 at VBET.
- Betano had the highest closing payout on the match result: 97.7%.
- Odds movement: the best price on Schalke 04 drifted from 2.90 at the opening to 3.05 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 57% chance of three or more goals and 61% that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Schalke 04 or Mainz 05?
Mainz 05, but only just: the closing odds put 8.3 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Schalke 04 – Mainz 05?
It depended on the outcome: Betano was best on Schalke 04, Betano on the draw and VBET on Mainz 05. Across all three outcomes Betano paid out the most (97.7%) and Bet25 the least (91.3%).
| BOOKMAKER | SCHALKE 04 | DRAW | MAINZ 05 | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betano | 3.05 best price | 3.70 best price | 2.35 | 97.7% |
| VBET | 2.95 | 3.50 | 2.42 best price | 96.3% |
| Stake | 2.90 | 3.60 | 2.38 | 95.9% |
| ComeOn | 2.92 | 3.57 | 2.36 | 95.6% |
| Casino House | 3.00 | 3.66 | 2.25 | 95.1% |
| Betinia | 3.00 | 3.40 | 2.36 | 95.1% |
| CampoBet | 3.00 | 3.40 | 2.36 | 95.1% |
| Casinomoto | 3.00 | 3.40 | 2.36 | 95.1% |
| Betoro | 3.00 | 3.40 | 2.36 | 95.1% |
| GetLucky | 2.89 | 3.53 | 2.33 | 94.5% |
| Casinostuen | 2.89 | 3.53 | 2.33 | 94.5% |
| bwin | 2.80 | 3.40 | 2.40 | 93.6% |
| 888sport | 2.90 | 3.40 | 2.20 | 91.5% |
| Mr Green | 2.90 | 3.40 | 2.20 | 91.5% |
| Bet25 | 2.70 | 3.45 | 2.30 | 91.3% |
| BEST PRICE | 3.05 | 3.70 | 2.42 | 98.9% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 2.70–3.05 · 13.0% | 3.40–3.70 · 8.8% | 2.20–2.42 · 10.0% | 91.3–97.7% |
How did the Schalke 04 – Mainz 05 odds move before kick-off?
The best price on Schalke 04 drifted from 2.90 when odds opened on 5 Oct to 3.05 at kick-off, a 5.2% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | SCHALKE 04 | DRAW | MAINZ 05 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 5 Oct (open) | 2.90 | 3.70 | 2.39 |
| Sun 11 Oct | 2.85 | 3.70 | 2.39 |
| Sat 17 Oct (kick-off) | 3.05 | 3.70 | 2.42 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Three or more goals was priced as more likely than not. Both teams to score was priced at 60.9%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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