Newcastle – Aston Villa odds
Newcastle went into the match as narrow favourites against Aston Villa.
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Newcastle – Aston Villa: closing odds analysis
- Newcastle were favourites: the closing odds implied a 41% chance of a home win, 33% for Aston Villa and 26% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Newcastle 2.42 at Betano, the draw 3.85 at Stake, Aston Villa 3.20 at Stake.
- Betano had the highest closing payout on the match result: 97.5%.
- Odds movement: the best price on Newcastle drifted from 2.09 at the opening to 2.42 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 59% chance of three or more goals and 65% that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Newcastle or Aston Villa?
Newcastle, but only just: the closing odds put 8.2 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Newcastle – Aston Villa?
It depended on the outcome: Betano was best on Newcastle, Stake on the draw and Stake on Aston Villa. Across all three outcomes Betano paid out the most (97.5%) and Bet25 the least (92.0%).
| BOOKMAKER | NEWCASTLE | DRAW | ASTON VILLA | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betano | 2.42 best price | 3.70 | 2.92 | 97.5% |
| ComeOn | 2.36 | 3.71 | 2.92 | 96.5% |
| VBET | 2.19 | 3.76 | 3.15 | 96.2% |
| Stake | 2.13 | 3.85 best price | 3.20 best price | 96.0% |
| GetLucky | 2.33 | 3.68 | 2.89 | 95.5% |
| Casinostuen | 2.33 | 3.68 | 2.89 | 95.5% |
| Oddset | 2.34 | 3.65 | 2.85 | 95.0% |
| Betinia | 2.37 | 3.66 | 2.80 | 95.0% |
| CampoBet | 2.37 | 3.66 | 2.80 | 95.0% |
| Casinomoto | 2.37 | 3.66 | 2.80 | 95.0% |
| Betoro | 2.37 | 3.66 | 2.80 | 95.0% |
| Casino House | 2.37 | 3.66 | 2.80 | 95.0% |
| bwin | 2.15 | 3.75 | 3.10 | 94.8% |
| SpreadEx | 2.30 | 3.60 | 2.90 | 94.6% |
| Betmaster | 2.33 | 3.45 | 2.85 | 93.5% |
| 888sport | 2.30 | 3.50 | 2.80 | 92.8% |
| Mr Green | 2.30 | 3.50 | 2.80 | 92.8% |
| Bet25 | 2.24 | 3.70 | 2.70 | 92.0% |
| BEST PRICE | 2.42 | 3.85 | 3.20 | 101.5% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 2.13–2.42 · 13.6% | 3.45–3.85 · 11.6% | 2.70–3.20 · 18.5% | 92.0–97.5% |
How did the Newcastle – Aston Villa odds move before kick-off?
The best price on Newcastle drifted from 2.09 when odds opened on 5 Oct to 2.42 at kick-off, a 15.8% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | NEWCASTLE | DRAW | ASTON VILLA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 5 Oct (open) | 2.09 | 3.80 | 3.35 |
| Sun 11 Oct | 2.12 | 3.90 | 3.35 |
| Sat 17 Oct (kick-off) | 2.42 | 3.85 | 3.20 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Three or more goals was priced as more likely than not. Both teams to score was priced at 64.8%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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