Millwall – Lincoln City odds
Millwall went into the match as heavy favourites against Lincoln City.
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Millwall – Lincoln City: closing odds analysis
- Millwall were favourites: the closing odds implied a 55% chance of a home win, 20% for Lincoln City and 25% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Millwall 1.78 at Oddset, the draw 4.33 at Casino House, Lincoln City 5.66 at Casino House.
- Betinia had the highest closing payout on the match result: 95.4%.
- Odds movement: the best price on Lincoln City drifted from 3.80 at the opening to 5.66 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 49% chance of three or more goals and 50% that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Millwall or Lincoln City?
Millwall, by a distance: the closing odds put 34.6 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Millwall – Lincoln City?
It depended on the outcome: Oddset was best on Millwall, Casino House on the draw and Casino House on Lincoln City. Across all three outcomes Betinia paid out the most (95.4%) and Betmaster the least (90.2%).
| BOOKMAKER | MILLWALL | DRAW | LINCOLN CITY | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betinia | 1.75 | 3.75 | 4.75 | 95.4% |
| CampoBet | 1.75 | 3.75 | 4.75 | 95.4% |
| Betoro | 1.75 | 3.75 | 4.75 | 95.4% |
| Casino House | 1.55 | 4.33 best price | 5.66 best price | 95.0% |
| Betano | 1.67 | 3.80 | 5.20 | 94.9% |
| Oddset | 1.78 best price | 3.65 | 4.50 | 94.5% |
| bwin | 1.73 | 3.80 | 4.50 | 94.0% |
| Casinomoto | 1.73 | 3.75 | 4.50 | 93.7% |
| ComeOn | 1.74 | 3.62 | 4.56 | 93.4% |
| SpreadEx | 1.75 | 3.60 | 4.50 | 93.3% |
| Stake | 1.72 | 3.60 | 4.70 | 93.3% |
| Bet25 | 1.74 | 3.70 | 4.40 | 93.3% |
| 888sport | 1.65 | 3.80 | 4.80 | 92.8% |
| Mr Green | 1.65 | 3.80 | 4.80 | 92.8% |
| GetLucky | 1.73 | 3.58 | 4.51 | 92.7% |
| Casinostuen | 1.73 | 3.58 | 4.51 | 92.7% |
| VBET | 1.69 | 3.45 | 4.60 | 91.0% |
| Betmaster | 1.72 | 3.40 | 4.30 | 90.2% |
| BEST PRICE | 1.78 | 4.33 | 5.66 | 103.2% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 1.55–1.78 · 14.8% | 3.40–4.33 · 27.4% | 4.30–5.66 · 31.6% | 90.2–95.4% |
How did the Millwall – Lincoln City odds move before kick-off?
The best price on Lincoln City drifted from 3.80 when odds opened on 13 Oct to 5.66 at kick-off, a 48.9% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | MILLWALL | DRAW | LINCOLN CITY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tue 13 Oct (open) | 1.91 | 3.66 | 3.80 |
| Thu 15 Oct | 2.02 | 3.85 | 4.70 |
| Sat 17 Oct (kick-off) | 1.78 | 4.40 | 5.66 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
The closing odds were close to an even split on three or more goals. Both teams to score was priced at 49.5%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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