Middlesbrough – Cardiff City odds
Middlesbrough went into the match as heavy favourites against Cardiff City.
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Middlesbrough – Cardiff City: closing odds analysis
- Middlesbrough were favourites: the closing odds implied a 64% chance of a home win, 17% for Cardiff City and 19% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Middlesbrough 1.57 at Casino House, the draw 5.33 at Betinia, Cardiff City 5.84 at ComeOn.
- Casino House had the highest closing payout on the match result: 95.5%.
- Odds movement: the best price on the draw drifted from 4.80 at the opening to 5.33 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 63% chance that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Middlesbrough or Cardiff City?
Middlesbrough, by a distance: the closing odds put 46.6 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Middlesbrough – Cardiff City?
It depended on the outcome: Casino House was best on Middlesbrough, Betinia on the draw and ComeOn on Cardiff City. Across all three outcomes Casino House paid out the most (95.5%) and Mr Green the least (89.9%).
| BOOKMAKER | MIDDLESBROUGH | DRAW | CARDIFF CITY | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casino House | 1.57 best price | 5.00 | 4.75 | 95.5% |
| Betinia | 1.47 | 5.33 best price | 5.50 | 95.3% |
| CampoBet | 1.47 | 5.33 best price | 5.50 | 95.3% |
| Betoro | 1.47 | 5.33 best price | 5.50 | 95.3% |
| Betano | 1.50 | 4.90 | 5.50 | 95.0% |
| bwin | 1.49 | 5.00 | 5.50 | 95.0% |
| Oddset | 1.44 | 5.25 | 5.75 | 94.4% |
| SpreadEx | 1.47 | 5.00 | 5.50 | 94.2% |
| Casinomoto | 1.46 | 5.00 | 5.50 | 93.7% |
| Stake | 1.49 | 4.90 | 5.20 | 93.7% |
| ComeOn | 1.43 | 5.05 | 5.84 best price | 93.6% |
| GetLucky | 1.41 | 5.01 | 5.79 | 92.5% |
| Casinostuen | 1.41 | 5.01 | 5.79 | 92.5% |
| Bet25 | 1.42 | 5.20 | 5.20 | 91.8% |
| VBET | 1.47 | 4.60 | 5.00 | 91.1% |
| Betmaster | 1.42 | 4.70 | 5.40 | 90.7% |
| 888sport | 1.44 | 4.60 | 5.00 | 89.9% |
| Mr Green | 1.44 | 4.60 | 5.00 | 89.9% |
| BEST PRICE | 1.57 | 5.33 | 5.84 | 100.4% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 1.41–1.57 · 11.3% | 4.60–5.33 · 15.9% | 4.75–5.84 · 22.9% | 89.9–95.5% |
How did the Middlesbrough – Cardiff City odds move before kick-off?
The best price on the draw drifted from 4.80 when odds opened on 13 Oct to 5.33 at kick-off, a 11.0% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | MIDDLESBROUGH | DRAW | CARDIFF CITY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tue 13 Oct (open) | 1.50 | 4.80 | 5.50 |
| Thu 15 Oct | 1.66 | 5.00 | 5.40 |
| Sat 17 Oct (kick-off) | 1.57 | 5.33 | 5.84 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Both teams to score was priced at 63.2%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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