Hamburger SV – Stuttgart odds
Stuttgart went into the match as heavy favourites against Hamburger SV.
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Hamburger SV – Stuttgart: closing odds analysis
- Stuttgart were favourites: the closing odds implied a 53% chance of an away win, 24% for Hamburger SV and 23% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Hamburger SV 4.40 at Stake, the draw 4.50 at Stake, Stuttgart 1.85 at Betano.
- Betano had the highest closing payout on the match result: 97.8%.
- Odds movement: the best price on Hamburger SV drifted from 4.10 at the opening to 4.40 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 66% chance that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Hamburger SV or Stuttgart?
Stuttgart, by a distance: the closing odds put 28.3 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Hamburger SV – Stuttgart?
It depended on the outcome: Stake was best on Hamburger SV, Stake on the draw and Betano on Stuttgart. Across all three outcomes Betano paid out the most (97.8%) and Bet25 the least (89.7%).
| BOOKMAKER | HAMBURGER SV | DRAW | STUTTGART | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betano | 4.05 | 4.25 | 1.85 best price | 97.8% |
| VBET | 4.40 best price | 4.20 | 1.74 | 96.1% |
| Stake | 4.40 best price | 4.50 best price | 1.69 | 96.0% |
| Betinia | 4.00 | 4.20 | 1.78 | 95.2% |
| CampoBet | 4.00 | 4.20 | 1.78 | 95.2% |
| Casinomoto | 4.00 | 4.20 | 1.78 | 95.2% |
| Betoro | 4.00 | 4.20 | 1.78 | 95.2% |
| Casino House | 4.00 | 3.80 | 1.83 | 94.4% |
| Oddset | 3.70 | 4.00 | 1.85 best price | 94.3% |
| ComeOn | 3.71 | 4.06 | 1.83 | 94.1% |
| bwin | 3.90 | 4.20 | 1.75 | 93.8% |
| GetLucky | 3.68 | 4.02 | 1.82 | 93.5% |
| Casinostuen | 3.68 | 4.02 | 1.82 | 93.5% |
| 888sport | 3.75 | 3.75 | 1.83 | 92.6% |
| Mr Green | 3.75 | 3.75 | 1.83 | 92.6% |
| Bet25 | 3.30 | 4.10 | 1.76 | 89.7% |
| BEST PRICE | 4.40 | 4.50 | 1.85 | 101.0% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 3.30–4.40 · 33.3% | 3.75–4.50 · 20.0% | 1.69–1.85 · 9.5% | 89.7–97.8% |
How did the Hamburger SV – Stuttgart odds move before kick-off?
The best price on Hamburger SV drifted from 4.10 when odds opened on 5 Oct to 4.40 at kick-off, a 7.3% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | HAMBURGER SV | DRAW | STUTTGART |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 5 Oct (open) | 4.10 | 4.20 | 1.83 |
| Sun 11 Oct | 4.10 | 4.20 | 1.84 |
| Sat 17 Oct (kick-off) | 4.40 | 4.50 | 1.85 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Both teams to score was priced at 65.7%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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