Espanyol – Atlético Madrid odds
Atlético Madrid went into the match as heavy favourites against Espanyol.
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Espanyol – Atlético Madrid: closing odds analysis
- Atlético Madrid were favourites: the closing odds implied a 56% chance of an away win, 20% for Espanyol and 24% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Espanyol 5.30 at VBET, the draw 4.20 at Stake, Atlético Madrid 1.75 at Betano.
- Betano had the highest closing payout on the match result: 97.2%.
- Odds movement: the best price on Espanyol drifted from 4.30 at the opening to 5.30 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 54% chance of three or more goals and 55% that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Espanyol or Atlético Madrid?
Atlético Madrid, by a distance: the closing odds put 36.4 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Espanyol – Atlético Madrid?
It depended on the outcome: VBET was best on Espanyol, Stake on the draw and Betano on Atlético Madrid. Across all three outcomes Betano paid out the most (97.2%) and Bet25 the least (90.4%).
| BOOKMAKER | ESPANYOL | DRAW | ATLÉTICO MADRID | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betano | 4.90 | 3.95 | 1.75 best price | 97.2% |
| Stake | 5.00 | 4.20 best price | 1.66 | 96.1% |
| VBET | 5.30 best price | 4.00 | 1.66 | 96.1% |
| Casino House | 5.00 | 3.80 | 1.70 | 95.1% |
| Oddset | 4.75 | 3.95 | 1.70 | 95.1% |
| ComeOn | 4.75 | 3.96 | 1.69 | 94.8% |
| bwin | 4.75 | 3.90 | 1.70 | 94.8% |
| GetLucky | 4.71 | 3.92 | 1.68 | 94.1% |
| Casinostuen | 4.71 | 3.92 | 1.68 | 94.1% |
| SpreadEx | 5.00 | 3.80 | 1.67 | 94.1% |
| Betmaster | 4.70 | 3.80 | 1.68 | 93.4% |
| 888sport | 4.60 | 3.75 | 1.66 | 92.0% |
| Mr Green | 4.60 | 3.75 | 1.66 | 92.0% |
| Bet25 | 4.30 | 3.90 | 1.62 | 90.4% |
| BEST PRICE | 5.30 | 4.20 | 1.75 | 100.2% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 4.30–5.30 · 23.3% | 3.75–4.20 · 12.0% | 1.62–1.75 · 8.0% | 90.4–97.2% |
How did the Espanyol – Atlético Madrid odds move before kick-off?
The best price on Espanyol drifted from 4.30 when odds opened on 10 Oct to 5.30 at kick-off, a 23.3% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | ESPANYOL | DRAW | ATLÉTICO MADRID |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 10 Oct (open) | 4.30 | 3.98 | 1.85 |
| Tue 13 Oct | 4.60 | 3.98 | 1.85 |
| Sat 17 Oct (kick-off) | 5.30 | 4.40 | 1.75 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
The closing odds were close to an even split on three or more goals. Both teams to score was priced at 55.2%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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