Derby County – Stoke City odds
Stoke City went into the match as narrow favourites against Derby County.
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Derby County – Stoke City: closing odds analysis
- Stoke City were favourites: the closing odds implied a 40% chance of an away win, 32% for Derby County and 28% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Derby County 3.00 at Betinia, the draw 3.45 at Bet25, Stoke City 2.42 at Betano.
- Betinia had the highest closing payout on the match result: 95.2%.
- Odds movement: the best price on Derby County drifted from 2.54 at the opening to 3.00 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 48% chance of three or more goals and 53% that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Derby County or Stoke City?
Stoke City, but only just: the closing odds put 7.2 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Derby County – Stoke City?
It depended on the outcome: Betinia was best on Derby County, Bet25 on the draw and Betano on Stoke City. Across all three outcomes Betinia paid out the most (95.2%) and Betmaster the least (90.3%).
| BOOKMAKER | DERBY COUNTY | DRAW | STOKE CITY | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betinia | 3.00 best price | 3.33 | 2.40 | 95.2% |
| CampoBet | 3.00 best price | 3.33 | 2.40 | 95.2% |
| Betoro | 3.00 best price | 3.33 | 2.40 | 95.2% |
| Casino House | 3.00 best price | 3.33 | 2.40 | 95.2% |
| Betano | 2.95 | 3.35 | 2.42 best price | 95.2% |
| Stake | 2.90 | 3.40 | 2.40 | 94.7% |
| Oddset | 2.90 | 3.40 | 2.40 | 94.7% |
| SpreadEx | 2.90 | 3.40 | 2.38 | 94.3% |
| bwin | 2.85 | 3.40 | 2.40 | 94.2% |
| Casinomoto | 2.90 | 3.33 | 2.37 | 93.7% |
| ComeOn | 2.87 | 3.37 | 2.36 | 93.6% |
| Bet25 | 2.85 | 3.45 best price | 2.33 | 93.5% |
| GetLucky | 2.85 | 3.34 | 2.34 | 92.8% |
| Casinostuen | 2.85 | 3.34 | 2.34 | 92.8% |
| 888sport | 2.87 | 3.25 | 2.30 | 91.7% |
| Mr Green | 2.87 | 3.25 | 2.30 | 91.7% |
| VBET | 2.75 | 3.26 | 2.33 | 90.9% |
| Betmaster | 2.80 | 3.15 | 2.31 | 90.3% |
| BEST PRICE | 3.00 | 3.45 | 2.42 | 96.5% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 2.75–3.00 · 9.1% | 3.15–3.45 · 9.5% | 2.30–2.42 · 5.2% | 90.3–95.2% |
How did the Derby County – Stoke City odds move before kick-off?
The best price on Derby County drifted from 2.54 when odds opened on 13 Oct to 3.00 at kick-off, a 18.1% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | DERBY COUNTY | DRAW | STOKE CITY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tue 13 Oct (open) | 2.54 | 3.40 | 2.71 |
| Thu 15 Oct | 2.65 | 3.40 | 2.75 |
| Sat 17 Oct (kick-off) | 3.00 | 3.45 | 2.42 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
The closing odds were close to an even split on three or more goals. Both teams to score was priced at 52.6%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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