Bayern Munich – RB Leipzig odds
Bayern Munich went into the match as heavy favourites against RB Leipzig.
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Bayern Munich – RB Leipzig: closing odds analysis
- Bayern Munich were favourites: the closing odds implied a 78% chance of a home win, 10% for RB Leipzig and 12% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Bayern Munich 1.26 at bwin, the draw 8.32 at ComeOn, RB Leipzig 11.00 at Betano.
- Betano had the highest closing payout on the match result: 97.5%.
- Odds movement: the best price on the draw drifted from 7.40 at the opening to 9.10 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 69% chance that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Bayern Munich or RB Leipzig?
Bayern Munich, by a distance: the closing odds put 67.9 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Bayern Munich – RB Leipzig?
It depended on the outcome: bwin was best on Bayern Munich, ComeOn on the draw and Betano on RB Leipzig. Across all three outcomes Betano paid out the most (97.5%) and Bet25 the least (90.2%).
| BOOKMAKER | BAYERN MUNICH | DRAW | RB LEIPZIG | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betano | 1.23 | 8.25 | 11.00 best price | 97.5% |
| Stake | 1.24 | 8.20 | 9.20 | 96.4% |
| VBET | 1.24 | 7.30 | 10.00 | 95.8% |
| ComeOn | 1.21 | 8.32 best price | 9.90 | 95.5% |
| Oddset | 1.21 | 8.25 | 9.75 | 95.2% |
| Betinia | 1.22 | 7.50 | 10.00 | 95.0% |
| CampoBet | 1.22 | 7.50 | 10.00 | 95.0% |
| Casinomoto | 1.22 | 7.50 | 10.00 | 95.0% |
| Betoro | 1.22 | 7.50 | 10.00 | 95.0% |
| Casino House | 1.22 | 7.50 | 10.00 | 95.0% |
| bwin | 1.26 best price | 7.25 | 8.00 | 94.6% |
| GetLucky | 1.20 | 8.24 | 9.81 | 94.6% |
| Casinostuen | 1.20 | 8.24 | 9.81 | 94.6% |
| 888sport | 1.20 | 7.00 | 10.00 | 92.9% |
| Mr Green | 1.20 | 7.00 | 10.00 | 92.9% |
| Bet25 | 1.19 | 8.00 | 7.00 | 90.2% |
| BEST PRICE | 1.26 | 8.32 | 11.00 | 99.5% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 1.19–1.26 · 5.9% | 7.00–8.32 · 18.9% | 7.00–11.00 · 57.1% | 90.2–97.5% |
How did the Bayern Munich – RB Leipzig odds move before kick-off?
The best price on the draw drifted from 7.40 when odds opened on 5 Oct to 9.10 at kick-off, a 23.0% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | BAYERN MUNICH | DRAW | RB LEIPZIG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 5 Oct (open) | 1.26 | 7.40 | 9.40 |
| Sun 11 Oct | 1.26 | 7.60 | 9.30 |
| Sat 17 Oct (kick-off) | 1.26 | 9.10 | 11.00 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Both teams to score was priced at 69.4%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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