Aarhus Fremad – Esbjerg fB odds
Aarhus Fremad went into the match as narrow favourites against Esbjerg fB.
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2nd Half
Aarhus Fremad – Esbjerg fB: closing odds analysis
- Aarhus Fremad were favourites: the closing odds implied a 40% chance of a home win, 34% for Esbjerg fB and 26% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Aarhus Fremad 2.48 at VBET, the draw 3.76 at Betinia, Esbjerg fB 2.90 at 888sport.
- VBET had the highest closing payout on the match result: 95.1%.
- Odds movement: the best price on Aarhus Fremad drifted from 2.13 at the opening to 2.48 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 59% chance of three or more goals and 62% that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Aarhus Fremad or Esbjerg fB?
Aarhus Fremad, but only just: the closing odds put 6.7 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Aarhus Fremad – Esbjerg fB?
It depended on the outcome: VBET was best on Aarhus Fremad, Betinia on the draw and 888sport on Esbjerg fB. Across all three outcomes VBET paid out the most (95.1%) and Mr Green the least (89.7%).
| BOOKMAKER | AARHUS FREMAD | DRAW | ESBJERG FB | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VBET | 2.48 best price | 3.47 | 2.78 | 95.1% |
| Betinia | 2.31 | 3.76 best price | 2.77 | 94.4% |
| CampoBet | 2.31 | 3.76 best price | 2.77 | 94.4% |
| Casinomoto | 2.31 | 3.76 best price | 2.77 | 94.4% |
| Betoro | 2.31 | 3.76 best price | 2.77 | 94.4% |
| Casino House | 2.30 | 3.75 | 2.75 | 93.9% |
| Bet25 | 2.32 | 3.65 | 2.75 | 93.6% |
| ComeOn | 2.31 | 3.62 | 2.72 | 92.9% |
| GetLucky | 2.29 | 3.58 | 2.70 | 92.0% |
| Casinostuen | 2.29 | 3.58 | 2.70 | 92.0% |
| Stake | 2.33 | 3.45 | 2.60 | 90.6% |
| bwin | 2.30 | 3.50 | 2.60 | 90.5% |
| Betmaster | 2.28 | 3.40 | 2.65 | 90.1% |
| 888sport | 2.10 | 3.40 | 2.90 best price | 89.7% |
| Mr Green | 2.10 | 3.40 | 2.90 best price | 89.7% |
| BEST PRICE | 2.48 | 3.76 | 2.90 | 98.6% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 2.10–2.48 · 18.1% | 3.40–3.76 · 10.6% | 2.60–2.90 · 11.5% | 89.7–95.1% |
How did the Aarhus Fremad – Esbjerg fB odds move before kick-off?
The best price on Aarhus Fremad drifted from 2.13 when odds opened on 14 Oct to 2.48 at kick-off, a 16.4% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | AARHUS FREMAD | DRAW | ESBJERG FB |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wed 14 Oct (open) | 2.13 | 3.65 | 3.17 |
| Thu 15 Oct | 2.19 | 3.63 | 3.05 |
| Fri 16 Oct (kick-off) | 2.48 | 3.76 | 2.90 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Three or more goals was priced as more likely than not. Both teams to score was priced at 61.6%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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